“Keep on the Watch… Prove Yourselves Ready.” – Matthew 24:42,44

This Yeartext is accompanied with the following remarks:

“Consistently, God’s Word reminds us that Jehovah’s day will arrive with shocking suddenness. Hence, our yeartext for 2004 reflects Jesus’ deep love for his disciples, whom he wants to preserve through “the great tribulation.” (Rev. 7:14 ) How do we remain spiritually watchful and ready? By allowing nothing to distract us from our study of God’s Word and from our privileges of sacred service.”

Six succeeding generations of Jehovah’s Witnesses have expected that the day of Jehovah will arrive with ‘shocking suddenness’. Again and again the Witnesses are pressed to remain ‘watchful and ready’. Here are some quotes from 19the century Watchtower publications:

“In the coming 26 years, all present governments will be overthrown and dissolved.” (1889 – Studies in the Scriptures, Vol. II)

“And, with the end of A.D. 1914, what God calls Babylon , and what men call Christendom, will have passed away, as is already shown from prophecy.” (1897 – Studies In The Scriptures, Vol. III)

But all the governments were not dissolved in 1914 and Christendom was still alive. After the miscalculation of 1914 the Witnesses thought that 1915 would bring the end of this world:

“The Gentile Times prove that the present governments must all be overthrown about the close of A.D. 1915; and Parallelism above shows that this period corresponds exactly with the year A.D. 70, which witnessed the completion of the downfall of the Jewish polity.” (1915 Edition – The Time Is At Hand)

It is a little tedious to enumerate all Watchtower quotations concerning the upcoming end that appeared in magazines and books after 1914. The destruction of governments and/or Christendom was predicted for the following years:

•1918 End of Gentile times, Christendom to be destroyed.

•1920 “ Every kingdom of earth will pass away, be swallowed up in anarchy” .

•1925 Faithful men of the Old Testament were to return and the establishment of the Kingdom in Palastine .

•1932 Christendom to be overthrown.

•1975 Armageddon.

•<2000 Armageddon before the turn of the century

Because the great motivator behind the proselyting activity of Jehovah’s Witnesses is the ‘upcoming end’, the Watchtower Society will continue to stimulate its followers with Yeartexts, articles and public talks. Jehovah’s Witnesses believe that the only chance for salvation is to actively preach the end of this world and the Kingdom of God . If they are not busy with their ‘sacred service’ when the ‘day of Jehovah’ will arrive with ‘shocking suddenness’ they believe that they will die with the wicked ones.

“Keep on the Watch… Jehovah’s Witnesses will predict the end of this world till the end of this world…”

BY RADO VLEUGEL

Alan Feuerbacher

Along with many other features of what it calls “the composite sign of Christ’s presence since 1914,” the Watchtower Society has long claimed that earthquakes have been far more frequent and severe in the 20th century than previously, and have caused far more deaths and damage. The December 1, 1993 Watchtower virtually abandons these claims, but does so in a manner calculated not to let on to the average Jehovah’s Witness that the earlier claims have indeed been abandoned. We will here examine the earlier claims and see how the Society neatly reduces them to almost no significance without letting on that it has done it. The Watchtower article is a fine example from the Society’s arsenal of intellectual magic tricks and illustrates how to divert the reader’s attention from the main issue.

First let us look at quotations showing that the Society has stated clearly that the number of earthquakes occurring each year has been much higher in the 20th century, especially since 1914. 

Since 1914 earthquakes have occurred more often than ever before. [From Paradise Lost to Paradise Regained, 1958, p. 183]

Jesus said there would also be “earthquakes in one place after another.” Therefore, for this to be the time of Jesus’ second presence earthquakes would have to be in evidence in an outstanding way. Are they? There can be no question about it. Terrifying earthquakes have rocked the globe with increasing severity and frequency during recent years. A university seismologist declared: “Something is going on all over the planet that is hard to put a finger on. Great forces are at work stirring up things far underground causing vast land drifts on several continents. The further you are from the last big earthquake, the nearer you are to the next.” Significantly, since 1914 there have been more major earthquakes than in any previous period of similar length in recorded history. [Watchtower, October 15, 1961, p. 628]

After 1914, particularly since 1948, great subterranean forces seem to have been at work, convulsing our planet, rippling its surface with tremors and almost annually producing one or more disastrous earthquakes. [Watchtower, November 15, 1964, p. 678]

Earthquakes continue to rock the earth as Jesus forecast for this generation…. It has been reported that the severity and deadliness of earthquakes have increased markedly since the “time of the end” commenced for this old system in 1914. [Watchtower, May 1, 1970, p. 270]

Jesus foretold earthquakes in great number and magnitude as a feature of the sign of his second presence…. Since 1914 C.E., and especially since 1948, there has been an increase in the number of earthquakes, especially of major ones. [Aid to Bible Understanding, 1971, p. 478]

Jesus did not foretell any one specific earthquake, but he did prophesy about a period of time when there would be particularly great and widespread earthquake activity…. The “great earthquakes,” those occurring since 1914 in “one place after another,” verify the accuracy of this understanding of Jesus’ words…. The great earthquakes of the past were generally isolated events occurring years, even centuries, apart. There were not many of them in a single generation. [Awake!, May 8, 1974, pp. 17-18]

Commissioner Gregorio Andal of the Commission on Volcanology said: “The earth’s crust at this point is in a turbulent condition and earthquakes can happen anywhere in the world, anytime.” Another group of scientists believes that some seismic process, not fully understood at this time, may be taking place. [Awake!, January 8, 1977, pp. 15-6]

The dramatic upsurge in earthquake activity since 1914 helps to prove that we are living in the time of Jesus’ presence. These mighty temblors fulfill his prophecy: “There will be great earthquakes.” [Awake!, February 22, 1977, p. 11]

Truly, earthquakes have abounded since 1914 — as part of the “sign.” [Watchtower, January 15, 1978, p. 10]

Discussing recent earthquakes, the Italian journal Il Piccolo observed: “Our generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity, as statistics show….” Of course, such an increase in seismic activity is no surprise to those familiar with Bible prophecy. [Watchtower, June 15, 1979, p. 11]

Has the frequency of earthquakes really increased? The Italian magazine Il Piccolo observed: “Our generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity, as statistics show.” And then it produced figures for the past thousand years to prove it. [Awake!, October 8, 1980, p. 21]

Also, “earthquakes” are included as part of the “sign.” An upsurge in earthquakes since 1914? This may sound surprising. But the statistics are even more surprising! As Geo Malagoli commented in Il Piccolo: “During a period of 1,059 years [from 856 to 1914] reliable sources list only 24 major earthquakes.” His figures show that during those years an average of 1,800 persons died each year in earthquakes, whereas there have been 43 major earthquakes since 1915, and these have killed an average of 25,300 persons a year. [Let Your Kingdom Come, 1981, p. 113]

From 1914 until now, there have been many more major earthquakes than in any other like period in recorded history. [Watchtower, April 15, 1982, p. 9]

Jesus foretold “great earthquakes.” (Luke 21:11) Has the frequency of these really changed?… Since 1914 the yearly average of reported severe earthquakes has soared to over 11 times what it was during the thousand years before then. [Awake!, October 22, 1984, pp. 6-7]

The frequency of major earthquakes has increased about 20 times what it was on an average during the two thousand years before 1914. [Survival into a New Earth, 1984, p. 23]

In comparison with the previous 2,000 years, the average per year has been 20 times as great since 1914. [Reasoning from the Scriptures, 1985, p. 236]

Based on available records, the 20th century does significantly overshadow the past in seismic activity. Publications of the Watch Tower Society have repeatedly called attention to this. [Watchtower, January 15, 1987, p. 21]

With adequate preparation, many people have survived major disasters. Michiko, now 76 years old, says: “When I was a child, old people said major earthquakes came once in 60 years. I have often thought that their words have not applied in my lifetime. I have known countless severe earthquakes.” [Awake!, December 22, 1987, p. 27]

Jesus foretold earthquakes in significant number and intensity as a feature of the sign of his presence… Since 1914 C.E., there has been an increase in the number of earthquakes, resulting in much distress. [Insight on the Scriptures, 1988, p. 670]

The 20th century has been a century of earthquakes. [The Bible — God’s Word or Man’s?, 1989, p. 141

In 1987 Carl Olof Jonsson and Wolfgang Herbst published the book The “Sign” of the Last Days — When? It showed conclusively that earthquake frequency in the 20th century is pretty much the same as in other centuries. After that the Society began to tone down its claims about the severity of earthquakes. 

For example, the above quoted January 15, 1987 Watchtower, on pages 21-2, acknowledged that 

many seismologists believe that earthquakes are no greater or more frequent now than they were in the past. Conversely, others conclude that our generation has experienced earthquakes more frequently than did previous ones. Based on available records, the 20th century does significantly overshadow the past in seismic activity. Records of earthquakes before 1914 are not complete, however. And earlier generations did not have scientific means of measurement that would permit us reliably to compare the magnitudes of earthquakes past and present.

Then followed a discussion that tried to make “earthquake distress” the focal point of the supposed increase. 

The October 15, 1988 Watchtower, on page 3, claimed that according to data listed in two books (the data was acknowledged to be incomplete), earthquakes have been much worse since 1914, but “even granting that records from past centuries are incomplete, we cannot escape the conclusion that in our time mankind has been greatly affected by earthquakes.” An April 8, 1988 Awake! article was very significant in that it made no mention at all that earthquakes are more severe than in earlier times. In fact, with respect to all the features of the “composite sign”: 

Let us remember that while Jesus’ prophecy indicates a climax in man’s history as all these events come together in the same generation, they do not require that they be greater in number or magnitude than in any previous generation, even though that might be so. [p. 4]

However, the April 1, 1991 Watchtower (p. 6) restated the earlier position: 

The different features of the composite sign foretold by Jesus have never before been fulfilled all together in such a short period of time with such intensity and with such far-reaching consequences.

The March 22, 1993 Awake! was again vague about the intensity of earthquakes, merely saying on page 8 that “their magnitude also adds weight.” 

In addition to claiming that the frequency of earthquakes is much greater in the 20th century, the Watchtower Society has claimed that they are more destructive of life and property. The following quotations show this clearly. 

As Jesus foretold, after 1914 a series of earthquakes rocked the globe, causing more damage and casualties than ever before…. Earthquakes have continued to occur with frightening intensity, taking a toll of lives greater than in any other period of human history. [Did Man Get Here By Evolution Or By Creation?, 1967, p. 164; Watchtower, April 1, 1967, p. 198]

What about the earthquakes? Has there been anything unusual about these in the generation since 1914? [Subtitle “Earthquakes Since the Year 1914”] One way to prove clearly that the generation since 1914 is unusual as far as earthquakes are concerned is to consider how many deaths they have caused. [Statistics are cited]…. In other words, up to 30 percent of all those killed in earthquakes over the last thousand-year period have died since 1914! The other 70 percent or so of the deaths were spread out over almost nine hundred and fifty years. [Watchtower, February 1, 1974, pp. 72-3]

Also on page 73 a sidebar is presented entitled “Earthquake Deaths Each Year,” containing the captions “Before 1914 — 3,000” and “Since 1914 — 15,000.” 

Well over 100,000 persons have died in great earthquakes just since 1968! Those injured, homeless or suffering property damage number in the millions. This represents a tremendous increase over what took place in past centuries. [Watchtower, April 15, 1974, p. 243]

What shows that Jesus’ words, “there will be great earthquakes,” have been fulfilled since 1914 C.E.? — Luke 21:11. The earthquakes since 1914 C.E. have been “great” in terms of power, lives lost and property damage. In fact, their destructiveness has been more widespread and greater than in the years prior to 1914 C.E., claiming approximately 30 percent of all persons killed in earthquakes during the last thousand-year period. [Watchtower, May 15, 1974, p. 318]

Counting from about 1,000 years ago, the average yearly death rate from earthquakes was 3,000 before 1914; but since then that average has leaped to 15,000 per year. [Awake!, January 8, 1977, p. 16]

The following paragraphs are from Awake!, February 22, 1977, p. 11. 

Interestingly, for a period of 1,059 years (856 to 1914 C.E.), reliable sources list only 24 major earthquakes, with 1,972,952 fatalities. But compare that with the accompanying partial list citing 43 instances of earthquakes, in which 1,579,209 persons died during just the 62 years from 1915 to 1976 C.E. Here, year by year, are the locations of some of the quakes of this period, along with statistics on the fatalities:

	1915-1983:
Year	Location	Deaths
1915	Italy	29,970
1920	China	180,000
1923	Japan	143,000
1927	China	200,000
1932	China	70,000
1933	U.S.A.	115
1935	India (Pakistan)	60,000
1939	Chile	30,000
1939	Turkey	23,000
1946	Turkey	1,300
1946	Japan	2,000
1948	Japan	5,131
1949	Ecuador	6,000
1950	India	1,500
1953	Turkey	1,200
1953	Greece	424
1954	Algeria	1,657
1956	Afghanistan	2,000
1957	Iran (Northern)	2,500
1957	Iran (Western)	2,000
1960	Chile	5,700
1960	Morocco	12,000
1962	Iran	10,000
1963	Yugoslavia	1,100
1964	Alaska	131
1966	Turkey	2,529
1969	Iran	11,588
1970	Turkey	1,086
1970	Peru	66,794
1971	U.S.A.	65
1972	Iran	5,057
1972	Nicaragua	6,000
1973	Mexico (Western)	52
1973	Mexico (Central)	700
1974	Pakistan	5,200
1975	China	200
1975	Turkey	2,312
1976	Guatemala	23,000
1976	Italy	900
1976	Bali	600
1976	China *	242,000
1976	Philippines	3,373
1976	Turkey	3,790
1977-1983 addition +		44,623
Total 1915-1983:		1,210,597
Annual average:		17,545

The dramatic upsurge in earthquake activity since 1914 helps to prove that we are living in the time of Jesus’ presence. These mighty temblors fulfill his prophecy: “There will be great earthquakes.” [Awake!, February 22, 1977, p. 11]

Discussing recent earthquakes, the Italian journal “Il Piccolo” observed: “Our generation lives in a dangerous period of high seismic activity, as statistics show. In fact, during a period of 1,059 years (from 856 to 1914) reliable sources list only 24 major earthquakes causing 1,973,000 deaths. However, if we compare this figure to the partially complete list of recent disasters, we find that 1,600,000 persons have died in only 63 years, as a result of 43 earthquakes which occurred from 1915 to 1978.” Of course, such an increase in seismic activity is no surprise to those familiar with Bible prophecy. [Watchtower, June 15, 1979, p. 11]

Note that Il Piccolo borrowed its figures without attribution from the above quoted February 22, 1977 Awake! The June 15, 1979 Watchtower borrowed in turn from Il Piccolo but did not inform the reader that Il Piccolo borrowed from the earlier Awake! So here the Society was quoting itself while pretending the data came from an independent source. 

There have been earthquakes throughout history. But how does the period since World War I compare? In Il Piccolo, Geo Malagoli observes: [Il Piccolo is cited, and a sidebar is presented containing the statements “Up to 1914 — 1,800 a year” “Since 1914 — 25,300 a year”]…. Persons may say that the growing world population and the size of cities account for the higher earthquake death toll since World War I. Even if this is the reason, it does not change what has happened. [Happiness — How to Find It, 1980, pp. 148-9]

Very significantly, our century has seen more earthquake destruction than any other. From the time Jesus gave his prophecy until 1914, history records five earthquakes that each took 100,000 lives or more. In the period since 1914 at least four more such superearthquakes have occurred — in China in 1920, in Tokyo in 1923, in China in 1927, and, of course, the Tangshan quake in 1976. Truly, this generation has experienced not just earthquakes but “great earthquakes,” as Luke’s Gospel account puts it. [Awake!, July 8, 1982, p. 16]

As the accompanying Chart III indicates, loss of human life due to earthquakes has mushroomed since 1914. [Chart III is entitled “Earthquake Deaths” and contains the captions “Up to 1914 — 1,800 a year” and “Since 1914 — 25,300 a year”] [Watchtower, May 15, 1983, p. 6]

On the average, about ten times as many have died each year from earthquakes since 1914 as in previous centuries. [Life — How Did It Get Here? By Evolution Or By Creation?, 1985, p. 225]

In the same way that in the late 1980s the Society toned down its earlier adamant claims about earthquake frequency, it has done so with the number of deaths due to earthquakes. This is apparently due to earthquake death figures given in the book by Jonsson and Herbst. Recent Watchtower publications tend to be rather vague about just what is being claimed, not just about earthquakes, but also about the other supposed features of the “composite sign.” The effect of this vagueness is that no one can be sure just what the Society is claiming. This allows for great flexibility in interpreting what was said. 

The tendency for the Society to drift toward vagueness and to shift the focus of discussion when hard data has proven its position untenable reaches a new height in the articles “Natural Disasters — A Sign of the Times?” and “Natural Disasters — Is God Responsible?” in the December 1, 1993 Watchtower. Finally admitting that earthquake frequency has always been the same, [“The earth and its dynamic forces have more or less remained the same throughout the ages.” — p. 6] the articles bury this admission in an avalanche of arguments that try to show that natural disasters of all sorts, even ones Jesus never mentioned, are on the increase. Typical is the discussion on page 3, which asks: 

Are we seeing more catastrophic earthquakes… than did generations past? And in spite of advances in science and technology, are proportionately more people suffering as a result? To many the answer is yes. For example, the magazine New Scientist warns that “the world can expect more disasters in the 1990s than in past decades.”

Then follows several more quotations about a general increase in natural disasters in the past few decades, and the potential for more increase during and after the 1990s. In the first part of the first article, Matthew 24:3-14 is quoted and commented upon: 

“Nation will rise against nation and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be food shortages and earthquakes in one place after another. All these things are a beginning of pangs of distress.” With these words Jesus Christ explained to his disciples 19 centuries ago that such disastrous events, together with an increase of lawlessness and the worldwide preaching of the good news of God’s Kingdom, would introduce a composite sign marking “the conclusion of the system of things.”

Note that in the verse quoted, Jesus explicitly named three things that would be the beginning of pangs of distress. He did not say “there will be pangs of distress, of which the following are examples.” There is a big distinction between predicting an assortment of general disasters, and predicting certain specific ones. The accounts in Matthew 24, Mark 13 and Luke 21 make very clear that Jesus predicted only certain kinds of disasters, namely, wars, food shortages, earthquakes and pestilences. The Watchtower article deliberately glosses over this distinction by saying that Jesus predicted, not just those specific events, but “such disastrous events.” This gives the impression, without actually having said so, that Jesus was really talking about many more disasters than just the ones he mentioned. In this manner the reader is set up for the writer’s next arguments, which subtly tie quotations about general natural disasters to the specific one the writer really wants to address, namely, earthquakes. The technique is demonstrated in the second paragraph: 

Are we seeing more catastrophic earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and famines than did generations past?

Although Jesus only mentioned two out of these five types of events, they are now tied together in the reader’s mind. The quotations that follow in the article, concerning general natural disasters, reinforce the connection. Interestingly, the article makes no direct claim that these disasters have increased since 1914. In any case the arguments reduce to simple assertions that an increase in population-related disasters along with a heightened perception of them fulfills Jesus’ prophecy of Matthew 24:3-14. 

By the end of the first article the average reader has the impression that Jesus foretold all kinds of distress, even though he only mentioned four kinds. The reader will not notice that the conclusion the final paragraph of the first article makes is further leading him so that he will not notice the coming abandonment of the long-standing claim that earthquakes are much more severe in the 20th century: 

Since the Bible foretells such a time of great distress, does it mean that God is responsible for the disasters and the suffering resulting from them?

The reader is led away from the real point by an emotional appeal — asking whether our loving God is responsible. The writer is a true master of misdirection. Let us see how he further conceals his purpose. 

The second article, “Natural Disasters — Is God Responsible?”, asks the question in its title, and then defines a natural disaster as a violent physical event that causes “great destruction of life and property and the disruption of the normal way of life.” 

Along the way earthquakes are mentioned prominently as examples of natural disasters. Nowhere does the article claim directly that earthquake deaths are more frequent in the 20th century than previously, but the earlier citations about the general increase of natural disasters give the impression that earthquake deaths are indeed more frequent. This omission avoids having to introduce actual death statistics, which is desirable from the Society’s standpoint because a comparison of 20th century death rates to those in the 18th and 19th centuries shows that the total number of deaths is pretty much the same. This is particularly devastating to the Society’s claims, because it means that the per capita death rate is actually much lower in the 20th century, since the total population is much higher. A comparison of death rates, borrowed from Jonsson and Herbst, is presented in the appendix at the end of this paper.

Thus, having slipped in the impression that earthquakes are more destructive in the 20th century, the article then poses the question:

Thus, when it comes to the increasing destructiveness of natural disasters, we must ask, Have the natural elements become more violent? Or have human factors contributed to the problem?

The article then says that God has created the natural forces and can control them if he wants to, setting the stage for further misdirection. The reader is now concentrating on finding a reason for not holding God responsible for natural disasters, and the article asks: 

Can we hold God responsible for the increased havoc and devastation that have resulted from natural disasters in recent times? To answer this question, we must first consider whether there is evidence that the forces of nature have recently become dramatically more violent, perhaps even out of control.

If God is causing or allowing the forces of nature to be out of control, then he is of course directly responsible for any destruction caused by them. The reader is now eager to find a reason to absolve God from such responsibility, and is ready to hear that such disasters really are not fundamentally any worse than they have always been, and so God cannot be responsible: 

In this regard, note what the book Natural Disasters — Acts of God or Acts of Man? has to say: “There is no evidence that the climatological mechanisms associated with droughts, floods and cyclones are changing. And no geologist is claiming that the earth movements associated with earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunami (earthquake waves) are becoming more violent.” Similarly, the book Earthshock observes: “The rocks of every continent contain a record of innumerable major and minor geological events, every one of which would be a catastrophic disaster to mankind if they occurred today — and it is scientifically certain that such events will occur again and again in the future.” In other words, the earth and its dynamic forces have more or less remained the same throughout the ages. Hence, whether or not some statistics indicate an increase of some forms of geologic or other activity, the earth has not become uncontrollably violent in recent times. [boldface added]

Since “the earth and its dynamic forces have more or less remained the same throughout the ages,” earthquakes have also. Thus, with a stroke of the pen, the Society cancels all of its statements that since 1914 earthquakes have occurred more often than ever before. The average reader is completely unaware that anything has been changed, because he has been concentrating on absolving God from responsibility for natural disasters. The article then provides a reason for the absolution — irresponsible human activity. However, it continues to speak about a general increase in frequency and destructiveness of natural disasters, and earthquakes, of course, are in that category: 

What, then, accounts for the increase in the frequency and destructiveness of natural disasters that we read about? If the forces of nature are not to blame, the finger of guilt seems to point to the human element. And, indeed, authorities have recognized that human activities have made our environment both more prone to natural disasters and more vulnerable to them.

So, by a kind of “guilt by association” earthquakes still remain, in the mind of the average reader, extremely frequent and destructive in the 20th century, even though no direct statement to that effect has been made, and even though earlier claims about frequency have actually been reversed. Ten years from now, after other “softening” arguments have been advanced, the Society will be able to point to this article and say that it had “corrected” an erroneous viewpoint way back in 1993. Any of Jehovah’s Witnesses who then disagree will be unable to argue differently.

Appendix

Are earthquakes in our day really killing more people than ever before? In particular, was there a change after 1914? 

In The “Sign” of the Last Days — When? Jonsson and Herbst compiled a list of earthquake deaths for the 68 year period from 1915-1983 and compared them to the 68 year periods 1715-1783 and 1847-1914. The result was that on average about 17,500 people died per year in the 1915-1983 period, while about 20,000 and 18,000 died annually in the latter two periods. These variations are statistically insignificant. We here reproduce the tables from Jonsson and Herbst.

SOURCES: Båth: Introduction to Seismology (1979); Richter: Elementary Seismology (1958); Imamura: Theoretical and Applied Seismology (1937); Ganse-Nelson: Catalog of Significant Earthquakes (1981); Ambraseys: Earth-quake Hazard and Vulnerability (1981); Ambraseys-Melville: A History of Persian Earthquakes (1982); Latter: Natural Disasters (Advancement of Science, June 1969); Press-Siever: Earth (1974); Handbuch der Ceophysik (ed. Prof. B Gutenberg), Band IV (Berlin 1932).

As the above data show, reasonably complete studies prove beyond a doubt that the 20th century has not experienced any statistically significant change in earthquake deaths compared to earlier times. As one seismologist wrote, “For earlier centuries we do not have the same reliable statistics, but there are no indications at all of any increase in the activity in the course of time.” Of course, the December 1, 1993 Watchtower mentioned none of this data. Most individual Jehovah’s Witnesses will never examine the data for themselves and so will credulously accept the Society’s word. Even if they did examine the data, their prejudices would almost always cause them to reject it in favor of what “God’s channel” tells them.

For a more thorough examination of these issues, see The Sign of the Last Days — When? by Carl Olof Jonsson & Wolfgang Herbst.

B. Stett (assisted by B. J. Kotwall)

The Jehovah’s Witnesses (JW) teach that the Bible is authored by “Jehovah” and that it predicts Armageddon by/before 2000 AD and this they claim is Jehovah’s own interpretation.  

W i t h i n  O u r  T w e n t i e t h  C e n t u r y

Shortly within our twentieth century, the “battle in the  day of Jehovah” will begin against the modern antitype of Jerusalem, Christendom.
The Nations Shall Know That I Am Jehovah -  How? 1971 p. 216

To a JW the “battle in the day of Jehovah” is the same as Armageddon. It is the destruction, by the forces of nature, divided humankind, and angels of God, of all non-JW people and property. This implies the death of over 99% of the human race by 2000AD.    

W h e n  T h i s  P r o p h e c y  B e g a n

The prophecy of Armageddon by 2000 AD began in 1945 in The Watchtower (February 15 pp. 51-60) in the article The Kingdom Sabbath and Its Lord. 

Virtually the same material was repeated in the two editions of Let God Be True (1946; 1952) in the chapter The Sabbath: In Shadow and Reality.

Let’s follow the 1946 reference.

Chapter 7 of Let God Be True (1946) says that each of the seven days of  creation was 7,000 years long.

In particular:

Man being created toward the close of  the sixth day, he was put on earth toward the end of 42,000 years of earth’s preparation. (p. 155)

God’s “seventh day” of rest continues 7000 years. (p. 165)

Also the 1,000 year reign of Christ (the Millennium) corresponds to the last 1,000 years of the 7,000 years of God’s rest. (pp. 167-169)  So when did the 7,000 years of rest begin?

On page 165 it is claimed that the 7,000 year rest, “began applying over 4,000 years before Christ.”

Ignoring the minor question of there being no year “0” it follows that 6,000 years will be completed by or before 6,000 – 4000 = 2000 AD.

Page 166 says that the 1,000 year reign of Christ will start “immediately” after Armageddon. Therefore Armageddon will also have to be over by/before 2000 AD.

C o n n e c t i o n  W i t h  1 9 7 5

When Let God Be True was published the JWs believed that Adam was created in 4028 BC. This date is not given in Let God Be True but does appear in The Truth Shall Make You Free (1943 p. 152). In the 1950s the year of Adam’s creation was corrected to 4026 BC.

Adding 6,000 years to 4,026 BC and allowing for there not being a year “0”  results in 1975 exactly.

However, the 7,000 year rest started, according to JWs, after Eve was created. But 4,026 BC is the year of Adam’s creation. If, for example, Eve was created two years after Adam then 6,000 years into God’s 7,000 year rest would end in 1977. But Armageddon had to be over before the end of 6,000 years of God’s rest – but we are not told how long before.

Because of these unknowns – how long Eve’s creation  delayed  after Adam’s and how long before end of 6,000 years from Eve’s creation Armageddon would strike – JWs did not at first predict the world’s end (Armageddon)  for 1975  with  certainty. A usual phrase and estimate used at conventions was “the mid 1970s.”

Then The Watchtower (1968 May 1 p. 271) and Awake! (1968 October 8 p. 14) announced that Adam and Eve were created in the same year that is in 4,026 BC. This was confirmed in the book Aid To Bible Understanding (1971 p. 538) This removed one of the two uncertainties. From this new information it followed that Armageddon had to be over, and paradise introduced in, or earlier than, 1975.

The Watchtower 1968 May 1 p. 271
Thus, Adam’s naming of the animals and his realizing that he needed a counterpart would have occupied only a brief time after his creation. Since it was also Jehovah’s purpose for man to multiply and fill the earth, it is logical that he would create Eve soon after Adam, perhaps just a few weeks or months later in the same year, 4026 B.C.E. After her creation, God’s rest day, the seventh period, immediately followed.
Therefore, God’s seventh day and the time man has been on earth apparently run parallel. To calculate where man is in the stream of time relative to God’s seventh day of 7,000 years, we need to determine how long a time has elapsed from the year of Adam and Eve’s creation in 4026 B.C.E. From the autumn of that year to the autumn of 1 B.C.E., there would be 4,025 years. From the autumn of 1 B.C.E. to the autumn of 1 C.E. is one year (there was no zero year). From the autumn of 1 C.E. to the autumn of 1967 is a total of 1,966 years. Adding 4,025 and 1 and 1,966, we get 5,992 years from the autumn of 4026 B.C.E. to the autumn of 1967. Thus, eight years remain to account for a full 6,000 years of the seventh day. Eight years from the autumn of 1967 would bring us to the autumn of 1975, fully 6,000 years into God’s seventh day, his rest day.

When the deadline came and  all the prophecies failed, it was announced that Adam and Eve were not created in the same year. (The Watchtower 1975 October 1 p. 579)

This however left intact the prediction for, “within our twentieth century”.

O u r  O w n  T w e n t i e t h – C e n t u r y  G e n e r a t i o n

In  1965 The Watchtower had an article titled, Our Own Twentieth-Century Generation and  the Resurrection which said in part:

A “great crowd”…will never go to Ha’des or Sheol and need to be resurrected. However, it will not be so with the “goat” class of our twentieth-century generation. At the destruction of Babylon the Great and in the Battle of Armageddon they will be executed with an everlasting punishment and will never be resurrected from the dead, for they will go into the “second death.” Consequently, at the beginning of Christ’s millennial reign, there will be no “goat class” on hand to interfere with that righteous rule.
(1965 March 15 p. 177)

Potentially “Our Own Twentieth-Century Generation” could be “executed” in the twenty-first century. But if that were meant one would expect some mention of the twenty-first-century generation.

Furthermore to a JW of the 1950s to 1980s the phrase “our generation” referred to people old enough to witness with understanding the outbreak of World War I in 1914. “Our generation” and “this generation” therefore meant people born 1900-1905 or earlier. A few references to “this generation” meaning pre-World-War I people are:

•   Awake! 1966 October 8 p. 18

• Awake! 1968 October 8 pp. 13-14

• The Watchtower 1969 February 15 p. 101

• The Watchtower 1974 June 15 p. 359

• Awake! 1981 July 22 p. 4 

 
A  F i r m  A n d  D e f i n i t e  P r o p h e c y

  The prophecy of Armageddon in our twentieth century continues as a firm and definite prophecy:

The Watchtower 1984 March 1 pp. 18-19
Some of that “generation” could survive until the end of the century. But there are many indications that “the end” is much closer than that!

1989 Yearbook of Jehovah’s Witnesses p. 3.
How many will accept the invitation? John’s vision recorded in Revelation 7:9 had to become a reality. He saw “a great crowd, which no man was able to number, out of all nations and tribes and peoples and tongues, standing before the throne and before the Lamb, dressed in white robes; and there were palm branches in  their hands.” With confidence in the vision’s complete fulfillment during the decades of this 20th century the anointed remnant of the bride class have never let up in saying “Come!” Every effort has been made to broadcast the message to all nations.

  The Watchtower 1989 January 1 p. 12
The apostle Paul was spearheading the Christian missionary activity. He was also laying a foundation for a work that would be concluded in our 20th century. 

The quotes from the Yearbook and the 1989 Watchtower in effect say the same thing. This is that the JW preaching work, with everyone who will survive Armageddon having become a JW, will be completed in the 20th century. And every JW knows that the end of the preaching work coincides with the eruption of  “the great tribulation” and “Armageddon”.

The 1989 Watchtower quote is from the single-issue printing of The Watchtower. In the bound volume reprints the quote was changed to:

He was also laying a foundation for a work that would be completed in our day.

Despite this revision, the prophecy of “in our 20th century” remains an official doctrine which we’ll see next:

A r m a g e d d o n  N o t  F u r t h e r  T h a n  W e  H a d  T h o u g h t

The final generation of this world was first clearly linked to 1914 in 1953. That was in the booklet Basis for Belief in a Righteous New World (p.51). An earlier booklet Evolution Versus The New World (1950 p.53) discussed “this generation” in a 1914 context but didn’t clearly link the two ideas together except by implication.

Later there were quotes like:

Even if we presume that youngsters 15 years of age would be perceptive enough to realize the import of what happened in 1914, it would still make the youngest of  “this generation” nearly 70 years old today.
Awake! 1968 October 8 p. 13-14

This doctrine and prophecy was taught as “the Creator’s promise”. From January 1982 Awake! magazine had the claim:

Most importantly, this magazine builds confidence in the Creator’s promise of a peaceful and secure new order before the generation that saw the events of 1914 C.E. passes away.

In 1995 this promise was revised to:

Most important, this magazine builds confidence in the Creator’s promise of a peaceful and secure new world that is about to replace the present wicked, lawless system of things.
Awake! 1995 November 8

In discussing this revision The Watchtower said:

Does our more precise viewpoint on “this generation” mean that Armageddon is further away than we had thought? Not at all!
(1995 November 1 p. 20)

Well, how close had the JWs “thought” and prophesied Armageddon to be? The answer is that people born around 1900 would live to see Armageddon and it would happen “within our twentieth century”.

That only leaves two years from the present – 1998.

A l l  J W  T e a c h i n g  I s  F r o m  “ J e h o v a h ”

JW leaders claim that their organization is, “the only organization on earth that understands the ‘deep things of God’!” (The Watchtower 1973 July 1 p. 402)

They call their propaganda “true religion” and say of true religion, “its teachings must all be in harmony with God’s word.” (The Truth that Leads to Eternal Life 1968 p. 130)

The official position is well expressed in The Watchtower of 1931:

The Watchtower recognizes the truth as belonging to Jehovah, and not to any creature. The Watchtower is not the instrument of any man or set of men. No man’s opinion is expressed in The Watchtower. God feeds his own people, and surely God uses those who love and serve him according to his own will.
(November 1 p. 327)

Furthermore The Watchtower (1943 July 1 p. 202) says: “Jehovah God is therefore the only  Supreme Court of interpretation of His inspired word.” The subsequent page adds:

To such remnant of faithful servants of  Jehovah God Christ Jesus has entrusted all “his goods”, or earthly interests of the Kingdom. This does not signify that the faithful remnant or society of Jehovah’s anointed witnesses are an earthly tribunal of interpretation, delegated to interpret the Scriptures and its prophecies. No; Christ Jesus the King has not entrusted that office to them. THE SUPREME COURT STILL INTERPRETS, thank God; and Christ Jesus, the Court’s official mouthpiece of interpretation, reserves to himself that office as head of Jehovah’s “faithful and wise servant” class. He merely uses the “servant” class to publish the interpretation after the Supreme Court by Christ Jesus reveals it.
(p. 203)

The “Creator’s promise” regarding the 1914 generation has already been discussed. That “promise” is also “Jehovah’s prophetic word”:

Jehovah’s prophetic word through Christ Jesus is: “This generation [of 1914] will by no means pass away until all things occur.” (Luke 21:32) And Jehovah, who is the source of inspired and unfailing prophecy, will bring about the fulfillment…
The Watchtower 1984 May 15 pp. 6-7

From statements such as these it follows that if Armageddon by 2000 AD fails to occur the “Jehovah” of the JWs will be exposed as a liar.

J W  P r o p h e c y  T o  F a i l  A g a i n

JW prophecies are known to have failed for many other dates. These include 1878, 1881, 1906/1907, 1912, 1914, 1915, 1918, 1920, 1924, 1925, 1928, 1930s, 1935/1936, 1942, 1940s, 1970s.

Generalizing from this trend of failure the prophecy of “within our twentieth century” should prove to be false.

(From: INVESTIGATOR MAGAZINE No. 72 2000 May)

B. J. Kotwall

A faithful witness is one that will not lie, but a false witness launches forth  mere lies. (Proverbs 14:5 NWT)  

“THE SCRIPTURES SHOW” JESUS RETURNED IN 1874
From 1876 Charles T Russell (who founded the Watchtower Society—the publishing/legal channel of the Jehovah’s Witness sect) promoted 1874 as the date for Christ’s return and the start of Christ’s “invisible presence”.

That Christ returned in 1874 was official doctrine until 1930.   Note:

…the Bridegroom came in the Autumn of 1874, and he appeared to the eyes of faith—seen by the light of the lamp—the Word.

(Zion’s Watch Tower Reprints October/November 1881 p. 289)   Our Lord’s presence as Bridegroom and Reaper was recognized during the first three and a half years, from A.D. 1874 to A.D. 1878. Since that time it has been emphatically manifest that the time had come in A.D. 1878 when kingly judgment should begin at the house of God. (Studies in the Scriptures Vol. II 1889 p. 239)   …he [Jesus] would in reality assume the kingly office, power, etc.; viz., in the spring of 1878, three and a half years after his second advent at the beginning of the harvest period, in the fall of 1874.
Studies in the Scriptures Volume III 1891 p. 234

Our Lord, the appointed King, is now present since October 1874, A.D., according to the testimony of the prophets, to those who have ears to hear it: and the formal inauguration of his kingly office dates from April 1878, A.D.
Studies in Scriptures Vol. IV 1897 p. 621

Pastor Russell…believed and taught that we are living in the time of the second presence of our Lord, and that his presence dates from 1874…
WT December 1, 1916 p. 5998

Fall 1874 A.D. Second Advent of the Lord
The Finished Mystery 1917 p. 60

Some of the Scriptures, which, when understood in their connections and significance, prove that the Lord’s Second Advent occurred in the Fall of 1874 are as follows:
[A list of 88 interpretations followed]
…and these are but 88 of the proofs hastily collected.
The Finished Mystery 1917 pp. 68, 71

The time of the Lord’s second presence dates from 1874…
The Harp of God 1921 p. 231

The Scriptures show that the second presence (of the Lord) was due in 1874… This proof shows that the Lord has been present since 1874…
WT March 1, 1923 p. 67

Surely there is not the slightest room for doubt that in the mind of a truly consecrated child of God that the Lord Jesus Christ is present and has been since 1874.
WT January 1, 1924 p. 5

The second coming of the Lord therefore began in 1874…
Creation 1927 pp. 289, 291, 297, 298, 318)
The Scriptural proof is that the second presence of the Lord Jesus Christ began in 1874 A.D.
Prophecy 1929 p. 65

From 1874 onward is the time of the Lord’s second presence, as above stated… his circumstantial evidence fulfilling prophecy is what constitutes the physical facts, and is proof corroborative of the Lord’s presence since 1874…His presence beginning in 1874, he has carried on his harvest work from 1874 forward…
Our Lord’s Return 1929 pp. 27, 33, 37

JESUS’ “RETURN” SWITCHED FROM 1874 TO 1914
In 1930 Christ’s return and “presence” was switched from 1874 to 1914.

In The Golden Age magazine (1930 p.503) Joseph Rutherford, the second president of the WTS, wrote “Jesus has been present since 1914” but he gave no supporting explanation.   In 1932:

The prophecy of the Bible, fully supported by the physical facts in fulfilment thereof, shows that the second coming of Christ dates from the fall of the year 1914.
What is Truth? 1932

Until 1943 there was little further mention of this doctrinal change.  Then in 1943 the WTS published The Truth Shall Make You Free which revised the WTS’s Bible chronology by bringing the date of Adam’s creation 100 years forward.  This removed any remaining prophetic significance of 1874. Christ’s return in 1914 thus became the official truth for Jehovah’s Witnesses (JWs).

After switching Jesus’ “return” from 1874 to 1914 the WTS writers began to claim or imply that their early Bible Students had anticipated 1914 as the date of Christ’s “presence” from their beginnings!

Consider some examples:

DECEIFUL CLAIM REGULARLY REPEATED

As for the time of Christ’s second presence, Daniel’s prophecy is again the one that gives the chronology for it. (Dan. 4:16) It was figured out as pointing to A.D. 1914, and The Watchtower called notice to the significance of 1914 in the year 1879.
WT 1952 November 1, p. 658

Why, then, do the nations not realize and accept the approach of this climax of judgment? It is because they have not heeded the world wide advertising of Christ’s return and his second Presence.  Since long before World War I Jehovah’s witnesses pointed to 1914 as the time for this great event to occur.
WT 1954 June 15 p. 370

Bible chronology also fixes the time for Christ’s second presence and the assuming of his right to rule as at 1914; this date was published in the Watchtower as early as 1879, 35 years before 1914.
Tract: Sign of Christ’s Presence 1955 p. 3

…history confirms that Jehovah’s witnesses were the only Christian group found awake as to 1914…
WT 1960 July 15 p. 433

As we look back over the years, we can clearly see how God’s organization in modern times has progressed in understanding. For example, it learned that Christ’s second presence was to be in the spirit, and not in the flesh as many professed Christians believe. His rule would be from the heavens. This was a new revelation of great importance to God’s people who had been anxiously awaiting his second presence toward the end of the nineteenth century.
WT 1965 July 15 p. 428

For over thirty years before that date and for half a century since, Jehovah’s witnesses have pointed to the year 1914 as the time for the end of “the appointed times of the nations” and the time in which Christ would begin his Kingdom rule. (Luke 21:24)
WT 1966 February 15 p. 103

 “Do you believe in the second advent of the Lord?”  I asked the young man [a WTS colporteur in 1928] who came to the door. “Christ’s second advent was realized in 1914” he answered. In astonishment, I told him that was impossible. “You should read this book,” he said, handing me The Harp of God. I was baptized the following year, March 23, 1929…
WT 1988 May 1 p. 22
[Note: Nowhere in The Harp of God (1921) is the “second advent” of Christ put in 1914.  On the contrary, 1874 as the date of the “presence” of Jesus is mentioned in The Harp of God on pages 230, 231, 234, 235, 236, 237 241, 244, 271).  Also “the young man” could not have known in 1928 that “Christ’s second advent” was realized in 1914” because that teaching had not been published at that time! Even the later editions of The Harp of God (1937 & 1940) retained 1874 as the date of Christ’s “presence”.]

He [a WTS colporteur of 1921] explained to me that Jesus had been present since 1914, invisible to man. This was the most thrilling news I had ever heard… In late 1921 I was transferred back to England, and in the spring of 1922, I was discharged from the army.
WT l990 September 1 p. 11
[Note: When this purported conversation occurred in 1921 no WTS publication had mentioned 1914 as the date for the “return of Christ’’—nor for nine years afterwards!]

The Watchtower has consistently presented evidence…that Jesus’ presence in heavenly Kingdom power began in 1914. Events since that year testify to Jesus’ presence.
WT 1993 January 15, p. 5

…a prophecy providentially caused sincere 19th-century Bible students to be in expectation. By linking the “seven times” of Daniel 4:25 with “the times of the Gentiles”, they anticipated that Christ would receive Kingdom power in 1914.
WT 1998 September 15 p. 15

IGNORANT DUMB DOGS REJECT 1874
So certain was the 1874 date still in 1929 that Rutherford, the WTS’s second president, warned against ministers who disagreed with that date as follows:

Paul was a real Christian. He was not a D.D., unable to understand, such as are the D.D.’s of this present time. (Isaiah 56:10, 11)  Here the prophet says that some who claim to be watchmen will be blind and ignorant; and that these would be ‘d-d-s, sleeping and lying down, loving slumber’. He then says that they are greedy, never able to get enough, shepherds of congregations that can not understand; that they look out only for themselves, to get gain from their own congregations.
Our Lord’s Return 1929 p. 21

To followers of Rutherford the abbreviation “D.D.” or “d.d.” meant dumb dog but was also a pun on “Doctor of Divinity”.  The pun was a Rutherford joke for 25 years:

[C T Russell]…had too much of God’s work to do to pay attention to the yelpings of little men—of the D.D’s of Christendom (Isa. 56:10), who love slumber, but who snarl and bite when disturbed in their dreams of “peace, peace” (Jer. 6:14), social and civic gospels, church unity, and evangelistic raids on the pockets of the masses. The Finished Mystery 1917 p. 383

Consolation magazine (1940 March 6 p. 24 Australian edition) carried the joke further with a photo of a dog wearing a sign advertising a Rutherford lecture.  The caption to the photo is “NOT A DUMB DOG”.

Pastors, church ministers and Doctor’s of Divinity were people most likely to demonstrate the nonsense of Christ’s return in 1874.  Hence the booklet Our Lord’s Return – prior to discussing 1874 in detail – disposed of them as “blind”, “ignorant” and “D.D.’s”

Incidentally, thousands of anti-church comments like the above between 1917 and 1942 – mingled with ever-changing doctrines all labelled “truth” and with self-praises such as “peaceful Christians”, “saintly”, “watchful”, “enlightened”, etc – were leading causes of persecution of JWs during that era. But that’s another story. Here the quote regarding “D.D.s” is used to show how certain the 1874 date still was in 1929.

WHAT WAS PREDICTED FOR 1914?
The early JWs or Russellites did preach about 1914 but not as the date for Christ’s “invisible presence” since that, to them, occurred in 1874.  What they did predict for 1914/1915 is that they themselves would ascend to Heaven, the world’s nations and religions would be destroyed, and the survivors would be ruled by the Old Testament heroes like Abraham who would be resurrected and live in Jerusalem!  For example:

Be not surprised then, when in subsequent chapters we present proofs that the setting up of the Kingdom of God is already begun, that it is pointed out in prophecy as due to begin the exercise of power in A.D. 1878, and that the ‘battle of the great day of God Almighty’ (Rev. 16:14) which will end in A.D. 1915, with the complete overthrow of earth’s present rulership, is already commenced.
Studies in the Scriptures Volume II, 1889, p. 101

And with the end of A.D. 1914, what God calls Babylon, and which men call Christendom, will have passed away, as already shown from prophecy.
Studies in the Scriptures Volume III, 1891, p. 153

JWs ADMIT MISTAKES
WTS writers sometimes publish “recollections” of aged JWs—like the two above. Their reminiscences – that in the 1920s it was taught Christ came in 1914 – are false.  Historically the things “remembered” are anachronisms and could not have happened.  Anyone who taught in the 1920s that Christ returned in 1914 would have been expelled and shunned for apostasy!

WTS publications say that JWs admit mistakes:

Be big enough to admit a mistake…In striking contrast to the position taken by the popes is that taken by the Christian witnesses of Jehovah. They readily admit to having made mistakes as to doctrine and worship.
WT 1972 November 1 p. 643-644

JW Leaders publish lies about what was predicted for 1914, yet boast that the early followers were correct regarding 1914 even though they were wrong, and then boast again that JWs “readily admit…mistakes” when in fact they don’t readily do so!   That’s why this article is called “Boastful Lies”.

A religion that teaches lies cannot be true.
WT 1991 December 1, p. 7

B. J. Kotwall

Perhaps the
most frequently repeated lie in the Watchtower Society’s (WTS) publications
is that from 1876 onwards 
- 38 years before 1914 – they forecasted that 1914 marked
the START of “the conclusion of the system of things”.

In support the WTS often quotes the Bible
Examiner. This paper was published by one 
George Storrs (1796-1879) who greatly influenced Charles
Russell the first president of the WTS. Russell wrote in the
Bible Examiner of 1876 an article called 
Gentile Times: When Do They End?
This article is frequently referred in WTS publications but
has never been quoted in full for obvious reasons.

We are quoting below an extract
from this article to show that what WTS now says about what Russell 
actually wrote in 1876 is dishonest. Russell referring to
the Gentile Times as a period of 2520 years wrote:

At
the commencement of our Christian era, 606 years of this time had
passed…which deducted from 2520, would show that the seven times
would end in 1914…We will ask, but not now answer, another question:
If the Gentile Times end in 1914, (and there are many other and
clearer evidences pointing to the same time) and we are told that
it shall be with fury poured out; a time of trouble such as never
was before, nor ever shall be; a day of wrath etc., how long before
does the church escape? as Jesus says, “watch that ye may be accounted
worthy to escape those things coming upon the world”.

Bible Examiner October 1876
pp. 27-28

The fact is that
the article by Russell does not and could not have referred to 1914
as the START of the “conclusion of the system of things”. Russell
firmly believed that “the conclusion of the system of things” (also
called the “time of the end”) began in 1799, and that Christ came
invisibly in 1874 and that the church would “escape” before 1914.
It was taught by Russell almost right up to 1914, that 1914 was
going to be the END of the “system of things”.

For example:

We
see no reason in changing the figures – nor could we change them
if we  would. They are, we believe, God’s dates, not ours. But bear
in mind that the end of 1914 is not the date for the beginning,
but for the end of the time of trouble.

The Watchtower July 15, 1894 p. 226

…the
full end of the times of the Gentiles, i.e., the full end of their
lease of dominion, will be reached in A.D. 1914; and that date will
be the farthest limit of the rule of imperfect men. 

The Time Is At Hand 1889 p. 76-77.

Following are a
few extracts from WTS’s CD-ROM acclaiming or implying their sham
prescience about 1914 marking the START of “the conclusion of the
system of things”.  

Awake!
1973 1/22 p. 8
Of all men used by God to prophesy,
Jesus is outstanding. Based on what he said, along with the words
of Daniel and John, Jehovah’s witnesses pointed to the year 1914,
decades in advance*, as marking the start of “the conclusion of
the system of things.”

 
*See, for example, the Bible Examiner, Vol.
XXI, No. 1 (Whole No. 313), October 1876, pages 27, 28.

Awake!
1973 10/8 p.18
So counting from 607 B.C.E. when the
Gentile nations gained exclusive domination of the earth, when do
those “appointed times” end?
The answer is 1914. Jehovah’s witnesses pointed to that year as
early as 1876 in an article written by C. T. Russell and published
in the Bible Examiner. Thirty-eight years later that
marked year of 1914 arrived.

Yearbook
1975 p.37
Even earlier, however, C. T. Russell
wrote an article entitled “Gentile Times: When Do They End?” It
was published in the Bible Examiner of October 1876,
and therein Russell said: “The seven times will end in A.D. 1914.”
He had correctly linked the Gentile Times with the “seven times”
mentioned in the book of Daniel. (Dan. 4:16, 23, 25, 32) True to
such calculations, 1914 did mark the end of those times and the
birth of God’s kingdom in heaven with Christ Jesus as king. Just
think of it! Jehovah granted his people that knowledge nearly four
decades before those times expired.

The
Watchtower 1981 2/15 p. 10
Hence, another respected authority
(Harold Macmillan) adds his voice to those of numerous statesmen
and historians who, in looking back, recognized the significance
of the year 1914. Yet, decades before that year arrived, dedicated
students of Bible prophecy were able to identify 1914 as a climactic
turning point. (The “Bible Examiner,” October 1876, pp. 27, 28)
These Bible prophecies also reveal that the “generation” that saw
the events beginning in 1914 would also see the “conclusion of the
system of things.”—Matt. 24:3, 7-22, 32-35.

The
Watchtower 1983 5/15 p. 16

As early as in the year 1876, in an article that he submitted for
publishing in The Bible Examiner, the president
had pointed forward to 1914 as the date for “the times of the Gentiles”
to end, with serious consequences for the whole world of mankind.
(Luke 21:24, Authorized Version) Amazingly, at the
time that the president announced to the Brooklyn Bethel family
that the Gentile Times had ended, the first world war of all human
history was in its 66th day.

Revelation
– Its grand Climax At Hand! (1989) 
p.105
From the mid-1870’s, Jehovah’s people had been anticipating that
catastrophic events would start in 1914 and would mark the end of
the Gentile Times.

The
Watchtower 1990 10/15 p. 19
For 38 years prior to 1914, the Bible
Students, as Jehovah’s Witnesses were then called, pointed to that
date as the year when the Gentile Times would end. What outstanding
proof that is that they were true servants of Jehovah! 

Our
Incoming World Government (1977) p. 131
Ever since the year 1876 those who
became associated with the Watch Tower Bible and Tract Society and
the International Bible Students Association had been publicly declaring
that the Gentile Times would terminate in early autumn of 1914.

What should be remembered
is that the present leaders of the WTS have rescued only the phrase
“end of the Gentile Times” from pre-1914 WTS publications as can
be seen from the above quotations. What they deceitfully do not
tell is that 1914 marked, in pre-1914 publications, the end of the
world and the ushering in of Armageddon at that time.

The 
Watchtower says:

A
religion that teaches lies cannot be true.
The Watchtower December
1, 1991 p. 7

It separated the wheat from the chaff

[Sociological Analysis 50(1)1989, pp 23-40 ]

(Also published in Jon R. Stone (ed.)  Expecting Armageddon. Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy. New York, Routledge, 2000)

Abstract

  The Watchtower Bible and Tract Society, the world-wide organization of Jehovah’s witnesses, marked the year 1975 as significant: the apocalypse might take place. The proselytizing activities of the Dutch adherents were greatly influenced by this prediction: a significant increase in missionary zeal prior to that date, followed by a similar decline afterwards.
The latter phenomenon looks contrary to cognitive dissonance theorizing, according to which an increase in missionary attempts is hypothesized (Festinger et al. 1964). It is questionable, however, if Festinger’s theory is relevant in this particular case, mainly because of the ambiguous formulation of the prophecy and in-group characteristics among the adherents. Also it is proposed, that dissonance may have played a greater part in the period prior to 1975 than afterwards, mainly because of doctrinal characteristics of the Watchtower ideology.

Introduction

  In 1966 the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society, the organization of Jehovah’s witnesses, published a book, which said on pages 28 and 29:

"According to … trustworthy Bible chronology six thousand years from man’s creation will end in 1975, and the seventh period of a thousand years of human history will begin in the fall of 1975 CE. So six thousand years of man’s existence on earth will soon be up, yes, within this generation." ¹

It was the first of a sequence of statements in the Society’s literature on the importance of ‘1975′: would that year herald the beginning of Christ’s millennium reign, implicating doom for the non-believers?

Let it be clear from the outset, that the Society in its literature never proclaimed flat out that 1975 would be the definite end of this world and its population. Nevertheless, the formulations from 1966 onward on what might happen in that year, the sense of urgency on a probable apocalyptic event, later followed by a possibility of a cataclysm, had a startling impact on the proselytizing activities of the Jehovah’s Witnesses.

  As Festinger et al. hypothesized, non-materialization of a religious movement’s prophecy will result in increased proselytizing in order to reduce cognitive dissonance (Festinger et al. 1964: 25). However, up to now, the theory has only been tested among relatively small, isolated groups with a distinctive ideology, not being part of an umbrella organization (see, for example Hardyck & Braden 1962, Balch et al. 1983). In contrast, what were the effects among the 30,000-odd Jehovah’s witnesses in Holland when the, it’s true, ambiguous prophecy did not occur? The ambivalence of the prophecy poses the problem as to the applicability of the theory, since one of the conditions Festinger states is that "the belief must be sufficiently specific."  As will be shown below, this requirement is hardly met. Based on quantitative data of the proselytizing activities of Dutch Jehovah’s witnesses during the period 1961-1987, an attempt will be made to explain the rise and decline of the missionary zeal of the adherents.  

The Prophecy

  According to the Watchtower Society’s doctrine, man was created in the autumn of 4026 BCE.² So, in the fall of 1975, the first 6,000 years of human existence would come to an end. The crucial question if this period corresponded with God’s ‘rest day’, to be followed by the seventh millennium of God’s reign, as stated in the Book of Revelations, was the essence of the prophecy. For, this transition had to be marked by the final battle of Armageddon, implicating world-wide doom. From 1966 through 1975, this theme was a recurring topic in the Society’s literature.

Analysis of these articles reveals three characteristics. First, contrary to the Society’s marked uncompromising ideological jargon, the prophecy contains a definite ‘uncertainty’-clause. The following example is illustrative:

"It (the book Life Everlasting, see note 1. RS) shows that 6000 years of human experience will end in 1975, about nine years from now. What does that mean? Does it mean that God’s rest day began in 4026 BCE? It could have. The … book does not say it did not. … You can accept it or reject it. … Does it mean that Armageddon is going to be finished … by 1975? It could! It could! All things are possible with God. Does it mean that Babylon the Great is going to go down by 1975? It could. … But we are not saying." [Frederick Franz, the then vice-president of the Society, during a speech, quoted in The Watchtower (hereafter WT) Oct. 15, 1966].

  Secondly, the degree of uncertainty in the prophecy’s formulations increases, as 1975 drew nearer. Were the chances on Armageddon initially considered as ‘feasible’, ‘appar­ent’ or ‘appropriate’, from the end of 1968 onward it is a mere ‘possibility’ (WT Oct. 15, 1966; May 1, 1968; Awake! [hereafter Aw] Oct. 8, 1966; Oct 8, 1968;  WT Aug. 15, 1968). So, in 1968 the Society considered its chronological calculations as "reasonably accurate (but admittedly not infallible)", while two years earlier they were ‘trustworthy’. (WT Aug. 15, 1968; Life Everlasting…)

"Reports are heard of brothers selling their homes and property and planning to finish out the rest of their days in this old system in the pioneer service. Certainly this is a fine way to spend the short time remaining before the wicked world’s end." (KM May 1974, English ed., Dec. 1974 Dutch ed.).

The Society’s literature was one channel to disseminate the prophecy, the other was made up of lectures in congregations and during assemblies. The scanty data on what the Witnesses was told, also reveal a considerably less sophisticated view on the ‘1975′-events. During an assembly in 1974 the then Dutch branch-overseer tells the audience:

"The youth has a bright future. Many of us suffered from misery, sickness and death. You don’t have to experience that any more. The new order is near. … There will be a very special Service Meeting (a weekly congregational gathering, RS) in the week of 8 September 1975. Invite everybody. And what will then happen? Well, we don’t tell. You think, that if Jehovah makes such an appeal, that there’s nothing unusual behind it? Yes? …Well, sell your house, sell everything you own and say oh boy, how long can I carry on with my private means. That long? Get rid of things! Pioneer! (more or less full-time proselytizing, RS). Plan to shower people with magazines during these last months of this dying system of things! Everybody you meet!" (source: tape-recording, Divine Purpose District Assembly, Utrecht, Holland, Aug. 1974. Also cf. Penton 1985: 327, fn. 9).

  The October 1, 1975 edition of The Watchtower explains why the final battle has not taken place. Sure enough, the time lapse between the creation of Adam and Eve proved to be the weak link in the prophecy. The Society, in earlier publications convinced that this period would be "weeks or months, not years", had now substituted the word ‘not’ by ‘or’, thus concluding that any speculation on that date does no good. Apparently, many Witnesses were not satisfied with the way the prophecy or rather the correction, had been proclaimed (cf. Penton 1985: 100). So the July 15, 1976 Watchtower came back to the issue and repeated the argument. Much more important, however, was the way in which the Society distanced itself from its earlier highly suggestive recommenda­tions to part with one’s possessions. The Witnesses themselves were to blame for their carelessness, for they had misread the bible. Since, the scriptures do not reveal a specific date: "…it was not the world of God that failed or deceived him (i.e. the Witness) and brought disappointment, but … his own understanding was based on wrong premises."
It took the leading members of the Society four years, before they decided to acknowl­edge their error in the initial formulation of the prophecy (Franz 1985: 209). During the summer assemblies of 1979 the Society accepted the responsibility for a part of the disappointment among the adherents who felt victimized by the prophecy’s disconfirmation. The final word on the topic was stated in the WT March 15, 1980 edition in which utterances regarding ‘1975′ were regretted. The case was closed. 

  In January and February 1987, the Dutch branch of the Society offered a bargain of a package of nine, averaging 20-year old publications. The Witnesses were encouraged to distribute them as a ’special book offer’ during their house-to-house calls. Included was the book Life Everlasting – in freedom of the Sons of God, the first source of the prophecy.

Methodology

According to the Society’s branch office in Holland, the introduction in 1968 of a new study aid for potential converts, was another major contribution to the increment. This book, called The Truth that leads to Eternal Life was used as an introductory course during home bible studies among those showing interest in the Society’s ideology. Important however, was the Society’s advise on this issue. After six months, the poten­tial convert should have visited the Kingdom Hall. If not, the study should be discon­tinued and conducted among those, "who really want to know ‘The Truth’ and are willing to make progress."¹⁰  

  Defection in this period is low. Some 1,8% leaves the Watchtower Society, while the D/R-ratio is extremely high in favor of the recruitment: 0,09. Strictly quantitatively spoken, this is not surprising in view of the baptismal figures: in this period 16,660 new Witnesses join the Society, amounting to an average of 1851 annually.

  3. The disconfirmation phase: 1976-1979

  Obviously, many Witnesses believed that Armageddon might be postponed for a short while (the Society was rather explicit on that possibility), therefore 1976 doesn’t show a significant decrease in the amount of active members. Other commitment indicators however, had leveled off earlier. A definite diminishment of the Society’s following started in the summer of 1976, a process that would continue till 1980. It is estimated that in Holland approximately 5000 Witnesses either left the movement, were excluded or became marginal members, which amounts to 4% annual defection and a D/R-ratio of 1,32.

  The annual average baptismal figure drops to 952. This combination of baptisms and defectors may partially answer Wilson’s question, who, after mentioning the stagnation in growth of the Society’s global following in 1976, wonders if this is caused by a decrease of recruitment or defection (Wilson 1978:184). The Dutch case clearly points to both phenomena.

Illustrative for the total decline of proselytizing-activities are the figures in Table 1. It is clear, that all proselytizing aspects suffered a severe drawback, both at the individ­ual and collective level. 

TABLE 1

COLLECTIVE AND INDIVIDUAL PROSELYTIZING ACTIVITY 
OF DUTCH JEHOVAH’S WITNESSES, 1975 VS. 1979

Note: On the collective level, the data refer to total annual amounts
Source: Kingdom Ministry, Dutch eds. 1975, 1979  

In-group socialization of new adherents entails both cognitive mastering of the Society’s ideology and affective incorporation into a new community. At least, this situation is conceivable in circumstances of a non-stirring doctrinal climate, implying a more or less stable amount of congregation members. However, during the four year period 1972-1975, in Holland almost 10,000 new adherents joined the organization, increasing the total amount with approximately 50%, while at the same time the number of congregations increased with only 15%. Apart from this quantitative momentum, which must have been a barrier for a thorough enculturation, there is also a qualitative dimension: ‘1975′ as the main motive to join the movement.

According to the Witnesses, that would have been an inadequate attitude towards ‘The Truth’. After all, there is a rather complicated ideology to be absorbed, of which, no doubt, the eschatological component is the most significant and it is highly questionable, if the newly baptized were completely familiar with the remainder of the Society’s teachings. So it seems unlikely, that the main part of the new members were fully integrated in the movement’s congregations because of the amount involved vs. the capacity of the organization to absorb them within a relatively short time, and the neophytes’ focused ideological orientation. When disconfirmation occurred, the com­mitted were able to revert to the basic teachings of the Society, also supported by the group, which functioned as a defensive shield for the individual arousal of dissonance. (Beckford 1975: 221). It is likely, that for the newly baptized, those possibilities were lacking. Brose, quoting her informants, notes:

"… those who left … were really opportunists. … they had postponed joining until a more convenient time. When the end appeared imminent … they became afraid and joined the group. When disconfirm­ation occurred, they had little investment in the group and found it easy to leave". (Brose 1982: 159, 160. Also cf. Wilson 1978:184).

Hardyck, J.A. & M. Braden. (1962) "Prophecy fails again: A report of a failure to replicate."  Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 65(2):136-141.

Jonsson, C.A. & W. Herbst. (1987) The "Sign" of the Last Days – When? Atlanta: Commentary Press.

Penton, M.J. (1985) Apocalypse Delayed. The Story of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Rogerson, A.T. (1969) Millions Now Living Will Never Die. London: Constable.

Schwartz, Th. (1976) "The cargo-cult: a Melanesian type response to change," pp. 157-206 in De Vos, G.A. ed. Responses to change. Society, culture and personality. New York: Van Nostrand.

Stevenson, W.C. (1967) Year of Doom, 1975. The Story of Jehovah’s Witnesses. London: Hutchinson (Also published as: The Inside Story of Jehovah’s Witnesses. New York: Hart Publishing 1968).

Wallis, Roy. (1987) "New Religions and the Potential for World Re-enchantment: Religion as Way of Life, Preference and Commodity," pp 87-98 in Secularization and Religion: The Persisting Tension. Acts of the XIXth ICSR, Tübingen 1987. Lausanne: CISR.

Weiser, Neil. (1974) "The Effects of Prophetic Disconfirmation of the Committed." Review of Religious Research 16(1)19-30.

Whalen, W.J. (1962) Armageddon around the Corner. New York: John Day.

White, T. (1967) A People for His Name. A History of Jehovah’s Witnesses and an evaluation. New York: Vantage Press.

Wilson, B. (1978) "When Prophecy Failed." New Society 25 January.

Zygmunt, J.F. (1972) "When Prophecies Fail." American Behavioral Scientist 16 (2)245-267.

─────────     (1977) Jehovah’s Witnesses in the USA: 1942-1976." Social Compass 24(1) 45-47.

────── (1981) "Prophetic Failure and Chiliastic Identity: the case of Jehovah’s Witnesses," pp. 195-220 in Jansma L.G. & P. Schulten eds. Religieuze Bewegingen. The Hague: Mouton [orig. in American Journal of Sociology 1970(76)926-948]

© Richard Singelenberg. May not be reprinted without permission.

Carl Olof Jonsson

(From: Investigator No. 30 1993 May)
 

To apocalyptic movements the “end” has always been at hand. Without doubt this has been the key to their success.  How many people wouldn’t like our world of endless problems to disappear and be replaced by a better one?  Any movement that is able to keep such expectations alive has a guaranteed increase.
 

War and Peace as “Signs of the Times”

Such expectations are created by interpreting different
world events as prophetic ‘signs’, which indicate that the end is
close.  There are always Scriptures which, by the aid of a
little imagination, can be applied to the current world situation.
In times of war Jesus’ words about “nation against nation and kingdom
against kingdom” (Matt. 24:7) are quoted.  And during more
peaceful periods attention is drawn to other biblical statements. 
At such times the Watch Tower Society has commonly referred to the
words of the apostle Paul at 1 Thessalonians 5:3. This text says,
according to the New World Translation:

Seventy-six years have now passed since 1914, when,
according to the Society, the ‘last generation’ began. That the
present peace efforts have heightened the expectations among Jehovah’s
Witnesses is, therefore, nothing to wonder at.

Thanks to Gorbachev’s ‘glasnost’ policy a new period
of relaxation between the great powers has developed. A number of
protracted wars have ended, the dictatorships in Eastern Europe
are falling, and important steps have been taken in the negotiations
on peace and disarmament.  Will this development result in
a proclamation of “Peace and Security” around the world?  This
is, at least, what Jehovah’s Witnesses are now being led to look
for.

According to the Society, such a proclamation will
be “the signal for God to move into action”, yes, “an unmistakable
signal that world destruction is imminent.” – Awake!, April
8; 1988, page 14;  “True Peace and Security – How Can You Find
It?” (1986), page 85.

But how “unmistakable,” really, is the “signal” the
Witnesses have been told to look for? Most of them are completely
unaware of the fact that the Society repeatedly during its past
history has proclaimed that the period of  “peace and security”
is immediately at hand, or even that this period already has begun. 
Each time, however, the “unmistakable signal” has turned out to
be a mistake!
 

“Peace and Security” in the Period 1899-1914

Towards the end of his life Charles Taze Russell,
the first president of the Watch Tower Society, arrived at the conclusion
that 1 Thessalonians 5:3 was fulfilled in the period 1899-1914. 
When, during a question and answer session at a convention in 1915,
he was asked how this text should be understood, he answered:

Peace and Security in 1918

Russell’s interpretation turned out to be shortlived.
In 1917, when world developments indicated that the war, instead
of culminating in world destruction, would soon come to an end,
Russell’s interpretation was changed by the new president, J. F.
Rutherford. The war would end, he wrote, and be followed by “a short
period of peace,” when the people would say “Peace” in accordance
with 1 Thess. 5:3.  Soon after that the end would come. – The
Watch Tower, Jan. l, 1917, pp. 4-5;  Dec.1, 1917, p. 358

 

“Peace and Security” in the 1930s

The “sudden destruction” expected to follow quickly
upon the peace that commenced in 1918 turned out to be long in coming. 
In the middle of the 1930s, therefore, the time was due for a new
application of the ‘peace prophecy’.  Thus, in 1936, Rutherford,
in the booklet Choosing Riches or Ruin?, wrote that they
“now” were in the period when the prophetic words in 1 These. 5:3
would be fulfilled. But prior to this imminent peace period, Rutherford
predicted, the nations on earth, headed by religious leaders, would
silence the preaching work of Jehovah’s Witnesses. Thereafter they
would proclaim “Peace and security” worldwide. – See also pages
291-294 of the book Enemies, published in 1937.  On
page 293 of the latter book Rutherford wrote:

In 1939, however, World War II broke out without having
been preceded by the predicted world peace.  Once again, therefore,
Rutherford had to postpone the peace period. In 1940 he foretold
that the war would soon be interrupted by a brief peace period,
immediately followed by God’s war Armageddon. – The Watchtower
August 15, 1940, page 246 and September 1, 1940, pp. 259, 260, 265,
266.

Early in 1942, in the middle of the war, Rutherford
died.  His successor, N. H. Knorr, stuck to this latest interpretation. 
In the booklet Peace – Can It Last?, published in 1942, Knorr
explained that the peace period soon to come “will be very short-lived”,
as it would quickly be followed by the battle of Armageddon. (Page
26)

But the peace period that began after the end of the
war in 1945 was not to become as “short-lived” as the Watch Tower
Society had predicted!  We are, in fact, still living in that
peace period!   Historians now point out that such a long
era of peace between the great powers is unique in history! 
Historian Robert Jarvis, for instance, wrote in 1988 that,

“Peace and Security”  in the 1970s

During the greater part of the peace period after
1945 the relations between the great powers have been strained,
a situation that has often been described as ‘the cold war.’ The
‘peace prophecy’ at 1 Thess. 5:3, therefore, was generally pushed
into the background. But early in the 1970s a relaxation, a detente,
of the strained relations occurred.  This was greeted in the
Watchtower publication as an important “sign”, especially as the
Society for a number of years had been stressing that 6,000 years
since the creation of Adam would expire in 1975.  “Strange
events are taking place in our time,” said the Awake! magazine of
October 8, 1972., on page 4.  This special issue on the theme
“World Peace Coming – Will it Last?” contained a series of articles
discussing the peace efforts.  On page 9 the magazine referred
to the prophecy about “Peace and Security” at 1 Thessalonians 5:3
and stated:

1986: “The International Year of Peace”

Despite all the predictions and expectations for the
1970s, the decade passed without either world peace or world destruction.
And when also the relaxation and peace talks between the great powers
broke down, The Watchtower finally had to admit that “none
of these efforts fit the description at 1 Thessalonians 5:2, 3.”
(The Watchtower, November 15, 1981, p. 14)

But toward the end of 1985 the speculations got a
new start.  On October 24, 1985, the United Nations, on its
40th anniversary, declared 1986 as “the International Year of Peace”.

The Watchtower of October 1, 1985, stated that
Jehovah’s Witnesses “watch the event with interest”, but “cannot
say in advance whether this will prove to be the fulfilment of Paul’s
words quoted above.” (Page 18)  For safety’s sake, however,
The Society dusted off one of the books from 1973, True Peace
and Security—From What Source?  and published it again
in a new, revised edition during the peace year 1986 (renamed as
True Peace and Security—How Can You Find It?).  Referring to
the United Nations declaration of 1986 as the “Year of Peace”, the
book quoted the prophecy at 1 Thess. 5:3 and stated that:

This caution turned out to be short-lived. A few months
later, at the Society’s summer conventions a new book, Mankind’s
Search For God, was released.  On page 371 of this book
we found the following bold statement

“Timely Warnings to the Reading Public”?

Time and again, for almost a whole century, the Watch
Tower society has proclaimed that Paul’s prophecy about “peace and
security” has been close to fulfillment. Each time these predictions
have gone wrong.  It might be expected that a movement that
has failed so com-pletely in its predictions would finally assume
a more humble attitude and begin to tone down its prophetic claims.
But instead the movement continues, with stubborn presumptuousness,
to speak as if it receives its messages directly from Jehovah himself: 
“We are confident that Jehovah will keep his people well informed”,
said The Watchtower of May 15, 1987 (page 19)  And in
the same magazine, in the issue of September 1, 1987, the following
promise is given on page 22:

What Did the Apostle Mean?

Did Paul really predict that the nations, immediately
before the end of the age, would proclaim a world peace?  Did
he say that this would be the “final signal” heralding that 
“sudden destruction” is imminent? (The Watchtower, May 15, 1987,
page 19) The context, and especially the broader context, shows
this conclusion to be totally wrong.

Bible commentators often point out that the apostle
Paul in 1 Thess. 5:1-11 simply gives a summary of Jesus’ own words
about his coming as recorded at Matt. 24:36-44, Luke 17:26-30 and
21:34-36.  Jesus had said that he would come unexpectedly,
like a thief in the night.  It would be as in the days of Noah,
before the Flood, and as in the days of Lot, before the destruction
of Sodom and Gomorrah.  People back then were occupied with
their daily activities and didn’t suspect anything; “they were eating
and drinking, men were selling, they were planning, they were building.”
In the middle of all this the destruction suddenly came upon them. 
Paul briefly sums up Jesus’ words:

The Watch Tower Society has changed the sense of Paul’s
words to mean exactly the reverse. They have made the predicted
absence of “signs” and “signals”, which Paul expressed with the
words “Peace and safety” (NW: “Peace and security”)  to the 
“final signal”  that world destruction is imminent!

“Peace, Peace; When There Is No Peace”

The Greek word used by Paul of “peace” is “eirene”.
This word is used in the New Testament as an equivalent of the Hebrew
word “schalom”, which often occurs in the Old Testament.  Schalom
did not merely refer to “peace” in the political sense, but also,
and primarily, to God’s good will toward men, “God’s peace”. 
Paul’s use of the expression “Peace  (eirene) and safety” is
commonly supposed to be an allusion to Jeremiah’s words about the
Jews of his time at Jer. 5:14 and 8:11 (ASV):

This too indicates that Paul’s words about “Peace
and Safety” should not be understood as a political proclamation
of world peace, interpreted as the “final signal” of “world
destruction”.

BOOK TIP

Sign of the Last Days When
by Carl O. Johnsson