The '1975'-prophecy and its impact among Dutch Jehovah's Witnesses

(Also published in Jon R. Stone (ed.) Expecting Armageddon. Essential Readings in Failed Prophecy. New York, Routledge, 2000)

In 1966 the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society, the organization of Jehovah's witnesses, published a book, which said on pages 28 and 29:

It was the first of a sequence of statements in the Society's literature on the importance of '1975': would that year herald the beginning of Christ's millennium reign, implicating doom for the non-believers?

Let it be clear from the outset, that the Society in its literature never proclaimed flat out that 1975 would be the definite end of this world and its population. Nevertheless, the formulations from 1966 onward on what might happen in that year, the sense of urgency on a probable apocalyptic event, later followed by a possibility of a cataclysm, had a startling impact on the proselytizing activities of the Jehovah's Witnesses.

As Festinger et al. hypothesized, non-materialization of a religious movement's prophecy will result in increased proselytizing in order to reduce cognitive dissonance (Festinger et al. 1964: 25). However, up to now, the theory has only been tested among relatively small, isolated groups with a distinctive ideology, not being part of an umbrella organization (see, for example Hardyck & Braden 1962, Balch et al. 1983). In contrast, what were the effects among the 30,000-odd Jehovah's witnesses in Holland when the, it's true, ambiguous prophecy did not occur? The ambivalence of the prophecy poses the problem as to the applicability of the theory, since one of the conditions Festinger states is that "the belief must be sufficiently specific." As will be shown below, this requirement is hardly met. Based on quantitative data of the proselytizing activities of Dutch Jehovah's witnesses during the period 1961-1987, an attempt will be made to explain the rise and decline of the missionary zeal of the adherents.

The Prophecy

According to the Watchtower Society's doctrine, man was created in the autumn of 4026 BCE.² So, in the fall of 1975, the first 6,000 years of human existence would come to an end. The crucial question if this period corresponded with God's 'rest day', to be followed by the seventh millennium of God's reign, as stated in the Book of Revelations, was the essence of the prophecy. For, this transition had to be marked by the final battle of Armageddon, implicating world-wide doom. From 1966 through 1975, this theme was a recurring topic in the Society's literature.

Analysis of these articles reveals three characteristics. First, contrary to the Society's marked uncompromising ideological jargon, the prophecy contains a definite 'uncertainty'-clause. The following example is illustrative:

Secondly, the degree of uncertainty in the prophecy's formulations increases, as 1975 drew nearer. Were the chances on Armageddon initially considered as 'feasible', 'apparent' or 'appropriate', from the end of 1968 onward it is a mere 'possibility' (WT Oct. 15, 1966; May 1, 1968; Awake! [hereafter Aw] Oct. 8, 1966; Oct 8, 1968; WT Aug. 15, 1968). So, in 1968 the Society considered its chronological calculations as "reasonably accurate (but admittedly not infallible)", while two years earlier they were 'trustworthy'. (WT Aug. 15, 1968; Life Everlasting...)

The basis of this gradual retraction was caused by Adam and Eve: what was the elapsed time between their dates of creation? The Society advanced the theory that they were created in the same year, after which God's rest day began, thus legitimizing the parallelism-dogma. (WT May 1, 1968; Aug. 15, 1968; Aw Oct. 8, 1966; Oct. 8, 1968) Interestingly, after mentioning this event, the writer of the 1968 Awake!-article refers via a footnote to some pages in a 1963-publication, in which the topic is dismissed: "No, for the creation of Adam does not correspond with the beginning of Jehovah's rest day ... It does no good to use Bible chronology for speculating on dates that are still future in the stream of time. Matth. 24:36."³Awake! of Oct. 8, 1968 was the last publication, which highlighted '1975' in a theological context. It's true, that subsequent editions mentioned the 'end of 6000 years of human history' to be imminent, (in 1979 this event was described as 'approximately six years left', WT May 1), but mainly non-Society, 'Club of Rome Project'-like sources were quoted as support of a gloomy near future.⁴ Actually, Awake! of Oct. 8, 1971 implicitly dismisses '1975' as possible year of doom. In a diagram, '1975' is marked as an estimated date for world-wide famine and ecological collapse, but there's more to come: from 1980 onward, the earth will be scourged by environmental pollution, to be followed in 1985 by oxygen deficiency. Also, a book published in 1973 is rather non-committal on '1975': the end of 6000 years of man's existence and the beginning of the seventh millennium will be reached many years prior to the year 2000.⁵

If the premisses of the prophecy contain a definite rational character, emotional arguments completed the package. Probably as to neutralize the indefinite feature of the prediction, utterances of excitement, hope and urgency can be marked as the third distinction. "The end is imminent" are keywords intended to overrule possible doubts among the readers of the Society's literature. "What a time of big turmoil is ahead of us! A climax in man's history is imminent!", and similar expressions accompany the (usual) cogently exegetic assertions. In some cases, this leads to a remarkable view on certain biblical passages. Consider the way, for example, how the Society tossed around with the crucial Mark and Matthew verses that "concerning that day and hour nobody knows but only the Father":

"This is not the time to be toying with the words of Jesus (then follows Matt. 24:36. RS). To the contrary, it is a time when one should be keenly aware that the end of this system of things is rapidly coming to its violent end." (WT Aug. 15, 1968).

versus

"How close we may exactly be to the end of the present divisive system of things cannot be predicted, as Jesus reported that even he did not know the day or the hour ... (Matt. 24:36)." (WT May 1, 1970).

Especially the monthly bulletin Our Kingdom Ministry (KM), intended for Jehovah's witnesses only, used considerably less cautious language. As this periodical mainly contains proselytizing strategies, adherents were encouraged to increase their preaching activities, because time was running out rapidly:"Less than hundred months separate us from the end of 6000 years of man's history. What can YOU do in that time?." (KM Feb. 1968. Similar announcements appeared in the Sep. 1968, Mar. 1969 and Mar. 1972 Dutch editions). Incentives for greater commitment were put on the stage, like a 87-year old Witness in New Zealand, who sold his business in 1914 in anticipation of the then prophesied cataclysm, "so that he could enjoy a few months of 'colportage' pioneer service." This person encourages young people to act in a similar way (WT Feb. 15, 1967). Obviously, the Society considers this a policy worth following:

In sum, in the written sources of the Society, the '1975'-expectation emerges as an amalgam of a rational, exegetic construction and the emotional millennial prerogative of urgency, hope and action. As the year draws nearer, the biblical framework is less emphasized because of an uncertain variable, and the emotional argument, mainly fed by relevant, external references is more accentuated.

The Society's literature was one channel to disseminate the prophecy, the other was made up of lectures in congregations and during assemblies. The scanty data on what the Witnesses was told, also reveal a considerably less sophisticated view on the '1975'-events. During an assembly in 1974 the then Dutch branch-overseer tells the audience:

The October 1, 1975 edition of The Watchtower explains why the final battle has not taken place. Sure enough, the time lapse between the creation of Adam and Eve proved to be the weak link in the prophecy. The Society, in earlier publications convinced that this period would be "weeks or months, not years", had now substituted the word 'not' by 'or', thus concluding that any speculation on that date does no good. Apparently, many Witnesses were not satisfied with the way the prophecy or rather the correction, had been proclaimed (cf. Penton 1985: 100). So the July 15, 1976 Watchtower came back to the issue and repeated the argument. Much more important, however, was the way in which the Society distanced itself from its earlier highly suggestive recommendations to part with one's possessions. The Witnesses themselves were to blame for their carelessness, for they had misread the bible. Since, the scriptures do not reveal a specific date: "...it was not the world of God that failed or deceived him (i.e. the Witness) and brought disappointment, but ... his own understanding was based on wrong premises."
It took the leading members of the Society four years, before they decided to acknowledge their error in the initial formulation of the prophecy (Franz 1985: 209). During the summer assemblies of 1979 the Society accepted the responsibility for a part of the disappointment among the adherents who felt victimized by the prophecy's disconfirmation. The final word on the topic was stated in the WT March 15, 1980 edition in which utterances regarding '1975' were regretted. The case was closed.

In January and February 1987, the Dutch branch of the Society offered a bargain of a package of nine, averaging 20-year old publications. The Witnesses were encouraged to distribute them as a 'special book offer' during their house-to-house calls. Included was the book Life Everlasting - in freedom of the Sons of God, the first source of the prophecy.

The major indication of a Jehovah's Witness' commitment to his faith is his proselytizing activity. Extremely detailed, the Watchtower Society registers the missionary efforts of its adherents, publishing them annually and monthly. Generally, this information is considered reliable (Wilson 1978:183, Rogerson 1969:73, Stevenson 1967:18).

The data presented here have been obtained from the annual editions of the Yearbook of Jehovah's Witnesses and the monthly bulletin Our Kingdom Ministry.⁶ The Yearbook contains a quantitative overview, indicating the Witnesses's preaching activities in each country in which they are allowed to operate. It states, for example, the average number of "publishers", i.e. those Witnesses who proselytize; growth or decline percentages of publishers compared to the previous year; amount of baptisms; average number of "pioneers", i.e. those Witnesses spending at least 60 or 90 hours preaching monthly; the total number of hours spent on proselytizing, etcetera. Our Kingdom Ministry holds information of nation-wide proselytizing activity in terms of average individual monthly activity. Besides the amount of publishers and pioneers in a particular month, it states per individual the average number of preached hours; "the back-calls", return visits to someone paying initial interest in the publisher's message by purchasing a publication; the average number of "bible-studies", which can be considered as introductory courses for candidate members; the average amount of distributed magazines, and the like.⁷

The amount of publishers, the pioneer-publisher ratio, hours spent on proselytizing, back-calls and magazine-sales are applied as commitment indicators, both at the individual and collective level. The first three indicators are essentially independent of public reception, while back-calls and magazine-sales are more contingent of interactional processes: a house dweller can refuse to purchase Awake!, the time it takes the Witness to persuade him to do so and to get the message over, is part of the proselytizing package. The output of these efforts are reflected in the baptismal figures.

The results are graphically represented in figures 1 and 2. Figure 1 is self-explanatory, figure 2 shows the indicators per individual publisher. It is important to stress the fact, that the Watchtower Society in its statistics shows proselytizing Witnesses only. Those, who for whatever reason do not participate in preaching activities, are omitted in the data. Figures showing a decrease of publishers may indicate marginalization, exclusion or defection. However, in view of the Society's own definition of 'Jehovah's Witnesses', which includes the clause "those who actively witness", the term 'defection' will be applied to indicate declining membership.⁸ Based on baptismal figures and amount of publishers, it is possible to estimate the magnitude of defection and, more specific, a 'defection/recruitment ratio', hereafter D/R-ratio. For example: in Holland during 1975 an average of 28,097 Witnesses were reported active. In the period 1976-'79 a total of 3,807 were baptized. Adding this amount to the 1975 figure and reducing it with the annual Dutch mortality rate (averaging 0.66%), 1979 should count 31,050 adherents. In fact, 26,040 were reported, giving a 'shortage' of 5,010. So it is assumed that 16.1% dropped out, resulting in an average annual defection of 4%. Consequently, the D/R-ratio is 5,010/3,807 which equals 1,3.

Because of the effect of the 1975-prophecy on the proselytizing activities and membership quantities, it is important to distinguish four phases in the period 1961-1987. As will be shown, each of them is characterized by specific activities and distinctive growth and decline patterns. As the main sources for this analysis consist of quantitative overviews, the derived conclusions are highly tentative. Additional qualitative research, like in-depth interviewing of (former) Witnesses, is in progress. Also, comparative data from other regions will, no doubt, shed more light on this phenomenon.

FIGURE 1

ACTIVE WITNESSES, BAPTISMS AND PIONEERS

FIGURE 2

INDIVIDUAL PROSELYTIZING ACTIVITIES

FIGURE 3

MONTHLY ACTIVITIES JUL 1974 SEPT 1976

Of special interest as far as prophecy expectancy is concerned, is the summer-period of 1975 (see figure 3). According to the Society's Yearbook 1976 the maximum number of active Witnesses in Holland during 1975 amounted to 29.723. These were registered in November. In the monthly bulletin, however, a high point of 30,000 Witnesses was noted during the month of august. (KM Nov. 1975; Feb. 1976, Dutch ed.) Upon my query on this discrepancy, the Dutch branch office answered this was due to late reception of the data from the congregations. The number stated in the Yearbook was correct, not the one from the bulletin. It is interesting to speculate on this 'late reception'. Procedure prescribes that publishers should file their activities on specially designed forms through their congregations at the end of each month. As the graph for july 1975 indicates, there is either a striking low activity in that month or activities were not reported. The first possibility seems unlikely, in view of the urgency of the epoch and the significant difference in activity between july and august. In this case the difference was an ample 12%, whereas the average amounted to 5%. But why this late filing, as asserted by the Society? Could it be that a more than average amount of Witnesses were absent so they were unable to file their reports? Did they perceive this was a last opportunity to enjoy a vacation within the secular institutions, previous to Armageddon would temporarily discontinue this pleasure?

Proselytizing Activities 1961-1987

1. The pre-prophecy phase: 1961-1966

As figure 1A shows, this period is characterized by a moderate increase of adherents. The annual average growth of active Witnesses amounts to 2,8%. The other commitment indicators are more or less stable: each Witness spends an average of 130 hours yearly on preaching, distributes approximately 110 magazines, makes 47 back-calls and almost 2,3% is active as a pioneer. Also, the baptismal figures do not show significant fluctuations: an average of almost 750 converts dedicate themselves yearly. The annual average defection amounts to 1,5%, the D/R-ratio is 0,29.

2. The prophecy phase: 1967-1975

Highly significant is the rapid increase of all indicators from 1966 onward. Top scores in growth-rates of active Witnesses are made in 1968, 1971, 1973 and 1974 with 10,7%, 10,4%, 12,4% and 10,6% respectively. The so far unmatched amount of 29.723 Witnesses is reached in november 1975. In this possible autumn of doom, exactly 6000 years after the creation of Adam, the active following has more than doubled in less than ten years.

In the previous month more records are set: some 687,000 copies of The Watchtower and Awake! are distributed and almost 715.000 hours are spent in preaching. But these high points are not the result of the growing number of adherents only. The individual activity increases simultaneously, as figure 2 shows. The indicators back-calls and hours reach their maxima earlier than 1975. It is unclear what the cause of these 'premature' commitment maxima is, but it might be that there exists a proselytizing-'ceiling': after all, there is a physical limit in door-to-door preaching.

Undoubtedly, the Society's 1914-doctrine contributed to its growth during this period. This, still current, teaching assumes amongst others that "before the last persons of the generation, alive in 1914 will pass away ... this present wicked world will come to its end."⁹ In view of the elapsed time, many new converts and dormant members must have considered this an extra impulse to join the Society's ranks. (Botting 1984:63)

According to the Society's branch office in Holland, the introduction in 1968 of a new study aid for potential converts, was another major contribution to the increment. This book, called The Truth that leads to Eternal Life was used as an introductory course during home bible studies among those showing interest in the Society's ideology. Important however, was the Society's advise on this issue. After six months, the potential convert should have visited the Kingdom Hall. If not, the study should be discontinued and conducted among those, "who really want to know 'The Truth' and are willing to make progress."¹⁰

Defection in this period is low. Some 1,8% leaves the Watchtower Society, while the D/R-ratio is extremely high in favor of the recruitment: 0,09. Strictly quantitatively spoken, this is not surprising in view of the baptismal figures: in this period 16,660 new Witnesses join the Society, amounting to an average of 1851 annually.

Obviously, many Witnesses believed that Armageddon might be postponed for a short while (the Society was rather explicit on that possibility), therefore 1976 doesn't show a significant decrease in the amount of active members. Other commitment indicators however, had leveled off earlier. A definite diminishment of the Society's following started in the summer of 1976, a process that would continue till 1980. It is estimated that in Holland approximately 5000 Witnesses either left the movement, were excluded or became marginal members, which amounts to 4% annual defection and a D/R-ratio of 1,32.

The annual average baptismal figure drops to 952. This combination of baptisms and defectors may partially answer Wilson's question, who, after mentioning the stagnation in growth of the Society's global following in 1976, wonders if this is caused by a decrease of recruitment or defection (Wilson 1978:184). The Dutch case clearly points to both phenomena.

Illustrative for the total decline of proselytizing-activities are the figures in Table 1. It is clear, that all proselytizing aspects suffered a severe drawback, both at the individual and collective level.

COLLECTIVE AND INDIVIDUAL PROSELYTIZING ACTIVITY
OF DUTCH JEHOVAH'S WITNESSES, 1975 VS. 1979

Year	N	HOURS	PIO	MAGS	B. -CALLS
1975 1979	28,643 26,103	5,759,100 3,853,324	2,093 1,294	5,328,366 3,730,059	2,079,464 1,542,817
decr	-9%	-33%	-38%	-30%	-26%
1975 1979	per ind per ind	200.7 147.6		186.0 142.9	72.6 59.1
decr		-26.5%		-23.2%	-18.6%

Note: On the collective level, the data refer to total annual amounts
Source: Kingdom Ministry, Dutch eds. 1975, 1979

4. The post-prophecy phase: 1980-1987

The 1980's might be best characterized as a recovery from the traumatic disconfirmation phase. However, it seems that the more public dependent indicators as magazine distribution and back-calls experience a continuation of their decline. Probably the negative publicity in the Dutch media in 1982 and '83 has caused adverse societal susceptibility to the Society's ideology, whereas the other indicators show a gradual increase. Still, individual commitment is remote from 1975. Comparing October 1975 and 1985, there is only 3% less active membership, but preached hours show a decrease of 28% and pioneer/publisher ratio of 30%. The defection amounts to 1,7 % annually, the D/R-ratio over the period is 0,49.¹¹ This means that of every two Witnesses being baptized, one is not actively engaged in proselytizing.

Summarizing, it is obvious that the reaction of the Dutch Witnesses to the 1975-prophecy is one of initial hope, expectancy and tension. This is reflected in a growing commitment in terms of time-investment in proselytizing-activities: "the more imminent Armageddon is conceived to be, the more urgent recruitment becomes." (Assimeng 1970:107)
However, being committed is one thing, a house-dweller accepting the message is another. Undoubtedly, the prophecy had a social breeding ground. Via its literature, the Society jumped on the bandwagon of the Club of Rome, which predicted a gloomy situation for the mid-seventies. Also, airplane hijackings and 'Watergate' were perceived as definite omens.¹² Besides, the amalgam of social-cultural changes in the Dutch society of the late sixties and early seventies must have made a pessimistic impact on certain segments of the population concerning their perception on the enfolding of the near future. Rather adverse novel phenomena like drug-abuse and emerging unemployment, plus the Society's traditional topics like war, crime and other misery, made them susceptible to the prophecy and, gradually, to the complete ideological package.

Also, the Society operated on a highly competitive religious 'market' (cf. Wallis 1987). To be sure, the essentials of the apocalyptic message were more or less the same as those propagated by many of the so-called New Religious Movements, a significant part of the doctrinal system however, was diametrically opposed to the counter-cultural ideas of the novel faiths. Though both the growth of the NRM's and the Society functioned as a religious Dow-Jones index of social change, it may be hypothesized that the Society's increase can partly be attributed to the NRM's: did the latter cater to the needs of a 'seeking youth' resisting petrified societal values, the former offered the 'concerned citizen' ample ideological justification for his anxiety caused by the confrontation with deviant belief systems (cf. Bromley & Shupe 1979: 85).

After 1975 the picture is totally reversed: decreasing activities, low recruitment and high defection. As far as this last concerns, it is interesting to note that other scholars publishing on the Watchtower Society, have neglected to relate defection to the prevailing doctrinal climate. So Beckford estimates 19% defection in England during the period 1963-'71. (Beckford 1975:65). Penton uses 20% for the world from 1967 through 1983. (Penton 1985:294). Franz' calculation adds up to a defection of 'four out of ten persons baptized' in the period 1970-1979 (Franz 1985:31). Also, Beckford's remarks on the growing drop-out rate of British Publishers since World War II and the recruitment/drop-out ratio of 3:1, can probably be more differentiated, if phase-specific analysis is applied. (Beckford 1977:22;1975:65). One might argue, that many religious movements reached their peak in this period. However, in Holland the decline in membership of the NRM's did not start until the early eighties, thus eliminating this general trend as a variable causing the decrease of the Society's missionary zeal right after '75.

Discussion

"Do you know why nothing happened in 1975? Then, pointing at his audience, he shouted: 'It was because YOU expected something to happen'."(Penton 1985:100). Thus said the Watchtower Society's president to Canadian Witnesses during a speech held in 1976. This attitude of non-responsibility of the leading members towards the Witnesses as far as possible frustrations caused by the prophecy failure, was also exhaled in the Society's initial publications. As distinct from the probability of a coalescence of the first 6000 years' termination of men's history with the beginning of the millennium, this expectation was now flatly denied. Doctrinal changes were called for. It turned out, that Eve's creation was the weak link in the prophecy's starting-point: the 6000 years should have been counted from thàt date on. The scriptures, however, were not decisive when that event took place, as opposed to the 1966-results of the Society's exegetic research. So it was impossible to construct a specific apocalyptic calendar. Failure had been expounded.

The majority of the authors commenting on the Society's prophecy failures agrees that the organization's ability for reinterpreting foreseen events retrospectively is one of its most powerful means of survival (Beckford 1975; Brose 1982; Curry 1980; Penton 1985; Rogerson 1969; Whalen 1962; Zygmunt 1981). For, 1975 was not the first time: 1874, 1878, 1881, 1914, 1918 and 1925 had also been predestined for important events.¹³ And every time there was occurrence of rise, fall and recovery. Often, the prediction was later said to have been fulfilled in the 'invisible' world. But still, every time followers became disappointed and left the movement. White notes, that the Society had become careful as to mention another specific date after the considerable defections of the early twenties. (White 1968:399) Stevenson speculates on the fact, that the Society's top was concerned about the growing apathy of the Witnesses and that the prophecy might "rekindle zeal and devotion" (Stevenson 1967:87). The Bottings believe in intentional manipulation as to increase membership (Botting & Botting 1984:156), while, Zygmunt considers prophecy revelation a revitalization strategy (Zygmunt 1981:204). Franz, former member of the Society's Brooklyn-elite, is not very clear on this issue. He only mentions the then vice-president as being the most convinced of the teaching. (Franz 1985:208)

Also, it is remarked, that the 1975-prophecy has consciously been formulated rather ambiguously in order to prevent massive falling away in case of disconfirmation (Beckford 1975:220; Penton 1985:95). However, the ambiguity may not only have been important after disconfirmation-date, but also during the prophecy-phase. Consider for example the remarks of the anthropologist Schwartz, who, as a result of his study of Melanesian cargo-cults, notes that the function of proselytizing is not the reduction of dissonance, but instead that dissonance is required in order to maintain missionary activities: "The function of much cult behaviour is not necessarily to lessen dissonance or to overcome ambivalence. Rather it is to assure a certain level of persisting ambivalence that sustains cult excitement and activity, which becomes an end in itself." (Schwartz 1976:189). Following Schwartz, one may assert that the mere formulation of the 1975-prophecy may have caused considerable awkwardness among the Witnesses. Since, it was (and is) far beyond the Society's doctrinal stance to disseminate diffuse exegesis. Doctrines used to be inflexible and legalistic, (which, to be sure, could be modified at a later date), so no confusion among the adherents could arise as how to interpret 'The Truth'. But this rigidity was absent as far as the prophecy was concerned: the Society's literature didn't give an absolute hold, let alone what was said by some of the Society's high-ranking officials. So it is likely, that dissonance-arousal occurred prior disconfirmation, contributing to the increase of the missionary activities.

The indications on the preaching activities of the Dutch Jehovah's Witnesses after 1975 seem to depart from Festinger's original hypothesis, that increased proselyting would occur following disconfirmation of a prediction (Festinger 1964:25). A review of the reaction of the adherents does raise some questions as to whether cognitive dissonance theorizing is applicable in this specific situation. A recovery of preaching activities takes place in 1980, but only as far as the amount of publishers and pioneers concerns. Commitment in terms of time-investment continues to decline till 1984.

Though several scholars on the Watchtower movement seem, to a more or lesser degree, to adhere to Festinger's theory, since prophetic failure reactions are, in general terms, described as "initial shocks followed by resumption and increase of proselytism", it is questionable whether this is due to renewed activity of 'old' adherents. (See e.g. Curry 1980:182; Zygmunt 1981:202,216) Just as much there is case, that the increase of newly baptized from 1979 onward caused this revitalization, the more so, because defection in the beginning of the eighties, as well as in 1987, remains high.

The fact that the empirical evidence seems to contradict cognitive dissonance theorizing, evokes alternative approaches. First, it is important to consider if the conditions, under which increased proselytizing occurs, are fulfilled (Festinger 1964:4):

1. A belief must be held with deep conviction and it must have some relevance to action, that is, to what the believer does or how he behaves.

2. The person holding the belief must have committed himself to it; that is, for the sake of his belief he must have taken some important action that is difficult to undo.

3. The belief must be sufficiently specific and sufficiently concerned with the real world so that events may unequivocally refute the belief.

4. Such undeniable disconfirmatory evidence must occur and must be recognized by the individual holding the belief ....

5. The individual believer must have social support. It is unlikely that one isolated believer could withstand the kind of disconfirming evidence specified.

A first glance at these conditions results in a rather uneasy feeling. After all, how many witnesses were 'deeply convinced' of the prophecy. how many 'have committed themselves' to it, in spite of Aronson's remark that commitment is not a necessary condition for dissonance arousal (Aronson 1968: 466), what were 'the actions taken by how many that were difficult to undo', and, most of all, how 'sufficiently specific' was the prophecy? These questions cast doubt on the applicability of Festinger's theory, though there were Witnesses conforming to the conditions. Some reports, mainly based on the situation in the USA, mention the giving up of jobs, suspension of medical treatment, postponement of marriages and selling of property, but the magnitude of these actions is unknown (Brose 1982:157; Franz 1985:206; Penton 1985:95; Zygmunt 1977:56). Analysis of letters of former Witnesses, sent to a Dutch organization of disgruntled ex-adherents, reveals hardly any frustration directly related to '1975', except for some isolated cases of people who borrowed large amounts of money in 1974, convinced that the apocalypse would salvage them from repayment. Considerably less dramatically was to abandon wallpapering the house, as one Witness was advised.

Most likely, the belief in the prophecy can best be represented like the bell-shaped curve of a normal distribution: at one extremity, the non-believers, convinced that nothing would occur; at the other side the true believers, who had no doubt. In between these minorities the bulk of adherents presented itself: they were not sure, but, just in case, they hedged their bets. Because the analysis is aimed at the majority of the Witnesses, not conforming to the conditions of Festinger's theory, further references to the hypothesis don't seem productive. However, an exception will be made for the fifth condition, isolating it from its context and emphasizing the in-group characteristics on the congregational level during the prophecy-phase.

A significant revision of cognitive dissonance theory, put forward by Hardyck & Braden, focuses on in-group cohesion and outsider's reaction:

"the more social support an individual receives above the minimum he needs to maintain his belief, the less he will have to proselytize, . . . if a group is receiving considerable ridicule from non-members, one way of reducing dissonance that would be apparent to them would be to convince these 'unbelievers' that the group is right." (Hardyck & Braden 1962:140. See also Carroll 1979:95; Gager 1975:47)

Starting with the second condition, there is no indication that the Dutch Witnesses were met with considerable outside ridicule after 1975. In any case, nothing was mentioned in the calvinistic oriented Dutch Reformed press, the movement's most prominent ideological adversary. According to my informants some scornful remarks have been made during the door-to-door preaching, but this was a marginal phenomenon.

The first condition mentioned by Hardyck & Braden is much more significant. Being a Jehovah's witness is more than a follower of a religious movement. It often means a way of life confined within the micro-cosmos of the congregation among fellow-believers. Social relationships have endogamous features, not in the least as a result of an indifferent or hostile environment. The society is aware of the immense importance of group-cohesion for the continuity of its operation. This message in the organization's monthly bulletin expresses the danger of isolation:

"Removal can sometimes attend a big loss of contact with the congregation. Cases are known of brothers and sisters and persons showing interest, who got out of the routine completely after a removal and who lost their spiritual conviction almost completely." (KM june 1976, Dutch ed., my translation

In-group socialization of new adherents entails both cognitive mastering of the Society's ideology and affective incorporation into a new community. At least, this situation is conceivable in circumstances of a non-stirring doctrinal climate, implying a more or less stable amount of congregation members. However, during the four year period 1972-1975, in Holland almost 10,000 new adherents joined the organization, increasing the total amount with approximately 50%, while at the same time the number of congregations increased with only 15%. Apart from this quantitative momentum, which must have been a barrier for a thorough enculturation, there is also a qualitative dimension: '1975' as the main motive to join the movement.

According to the Witnesses, that would have been an inadequate attitude towards 'The Truth'. After all, there is a rather complicated ideology to be absorbed, of which, no doubt, the eschatological component is the most significant and it is highly questionable, if the newly baptized were completely familiar with the remainder of the Society's teachings. So it seems unlikely, that the main part of the new members were fully integrated in the movement's congregations because of the amount involved vs. the capacity of the organization to absorb them within a relatively short time, and the neophytes' focused ideological orientation. When disconfirmation occurred, the committed were able to revert to the basic teachings of the Society, also supported by the group, which functioned as a defensive shield for the individual arousal of dissonance. (Beckford 1975: 221). It is likely, that for the newly baptized, those possibilities were lacking. Brose, quoting her informants, notes:

The doctrinal aspect was clearly articulated by an elder, who, upon asking who left after 1975, answered:

"Those who left were the ones who were afraid of 1975. But they never were really in 'The Truth'. Regarding this, it was good that Armageddon did not take place: 'it separated the wheat from the chaff'". (fieldwork notes).

Besides the interesting phenomenon of the trial-function of prophecy disconfirmation as stipulated by the elder, these remarks confirm the observations of other scholars. So Balch et al., in their paper on a millennial Baha'i splinter faction, note the ability of the committed to readjust their belief to the basic issues of the Baha'i teachings, away from a prophecy failure (Balch et al. 1983:153). In their monograph on the Unification Church, Bromley and Shupe conclude similarly: "[A]s long as the basic metaphor remains intact and a strong network of reinforcing social relationships is maintained, ... changes in ideology do not necessarily pose a threat to the movement." (Bromley & Shupe 1979:107). Finally Gager, commenting on the missionary attempts of the first Christians, notes: "... the fact that the identity of individuals with the group as well as their breaking of old loyalties had long been established, suggests that the prophecy was less important to the members than the existence of the group itself." (Gager 1975:47. See also Carroll 1979:95).

Conclusion

It may be argued, that the increase in proselytizing activities of the Dutch Jehovah's witnesses during the prophecy-phase in the period 1966-1975 has been caused by three factors. First, there was a favorable socio-cultural climate, in which a millennial, conservative message constituted a counterbalance against incipient and already progressed societal changes as well as pessimistic expectations for the near future. Secondly, the adherents, both by the Society's literature and by verbal statements of its officials, were continuously needled to intensify their preaching efforts, legitimized by the possibility of salvation in 1975. Third, the phraseology of the prophecy departed from the traditional rigid terminology, in the sense that the prophecy contained a definite uncertainty clause. This phenomenon may have caused a certain amount of dissonance among long-standing members, used as they were to the non-compromising language of the Society, resulting in increased missionary efforts.

It is hardly fruitful to apply Festinger's cognitive dissonance theory to the events after 1975, because the pre-conditions accompanying the hypothesis are barely met. Preaching activities declined sharply and continued to do so in the Eighties. The organization's ideological and infra-structural resources prevented significant losses on a macro-level, while on a micro-level group-cohesion was an effective barrier against dissonance arousal among the long-term adherents. Also, this category was able to revert to the basic issues of the Society's teachings. Most probably, those forming part of the recruitment-bulge during the prophecy-phase, left the movement, because of a lack of proper sectarian resocialization, both socially and religiously.

The recovery from 1980 onward doesn't seem related to Festinger's theory. Individual time-investment in preaching activities continued to decline through 1983. Those, who left the movement after 1975, have been replaced by a new generation, most of them not aware of the '1975'-events and it is assumed, that this group is mainly responsible for the slight revitalization of the preaching activities. Also, no firm empirical evidence has so far been presented to establish a causal relationship between declining economic conditions and the Society's recovery in the Eighties, as suggested by Botting and Botting (1984:184).

For whatever reasons people join the ranks of the Watchtower Society, the element of salvation from a world approaching unavoidable doom, is still its most distinctive ideological feature. As so that, the Society is committed to another prophecy: the generation of 1914 will witness the end of this worldly system. Taking Schwartz's cue, one may suggest that dissonance is maintained in order to activate proselytizing. Exactly how the '1914' generation and 'the end' will be defined in the future, will become evident within one or two decennia. Perhaps in the way Whalen foresees: "By the year 2000 The Watchtower may be speaking about the invisible Armageddon that took place years before." (Whalen 1962:228). Whatever the outcome, "prophecies cannot and do not fail for the committed." (Weiser 1974:20).

Notes

1) Life Everlasting - in Freedom of the Sons of God. WBTS, New York 1966. Dutch ed. 1968.

2) Some of the Society's earlier publications deviated marginally from this year. The 1943-edition of The Truth Shall Make You Free, for example, mentions the year 4028 BC, while according to New Heavens and a New Earth(WBTS 1953) man was created around 4025 BC.

3) All Scripture Is Inspired of God and Beneficial. WBTS, New York 1963, Dutch ed. 1966 p.285. So at the same time, two opposite dogma's were current. Note the time gap between the publication of the English and Dutch editions. In this period, the Dutch Watchtower, the Society's main channel to disseminate doctrinal matters, appeared three months after the English edition, while Awake!, more accessible to non-members, was published six months later. Probably, as to prevent an ideological lead for the English-reading public, The Watchtower is published simultaneously in approximately 20 languages since 1985.

4) Frequent references were made to a book called Famine-1975!, in which world-wide catastrophe was predicted for the mid-seventies. For a critical review on the Society's quotation-policy of secular sources, see Jonsson & Herbst 1987.

5) God's Kingdom of a Thousand Years Has Approached. WBTS, New York 1973, Dutch ed. p.12.

6) The Society presents its annual statistics over the period september through august. With the exception of the baptismal figures, the data presented in this text are based on calendar years, derived from the monthly statistics in Kingdom Ministry.

7) By multiplying the average individual amount by the number of Witnesses, the total amount has been obtained.

8) Reasoning From the Scriptures. WBTS, New York 1985 Dutch ed. p.216.

9) Reasoning From The Scriptures, Dutch ed. p.89

10) 'The Truth' is Witnesses' jargon, meaning the Society's belief system. See KM Nov.1968, Dutch ed. and Penton 1985:95.

11) This figure gets more relief, if the annual ratios are given: 1980:0.65 1981:0.63 - 1982:0.47 - 1983:0.49 - 1984:0.48 - 1985:0.34 - 1986:0.28 - 1987:0.68

12) As stated by several high-ranking officials of the Dutch branch in news-paper interviews.

13) See Curry 1980:ch.V.

References

Aronson, E. (1968) "Discussion: Commitments about Commitments," pp. 464-466 in: Abelson, R.P. et al. eds. Theories of Cognitive Consistency. A Sourcebook. Chicago: Rand McNally.

Assimeng, J.M. (1970) "Sectarian Allegiance and Political Authority: The Watch Tower Society in Zambia, 1907-1935." Journal of Modern African Studies 8(1)97-112.

Balch, R.W. et al. (1983) "When the bombs drop: Reactions to Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Sect." Sociological Perspectives 26(2)137-158.

Beckford, J.A. (1975) The Trumpet of Prophecy. A sociological study of Jehovah's Witnesses. London: Basil Blackwell.

───────── (1977) "The Watchtower Movement World-Wide." Social Compass 24(1)5-31.

Botting, H. & G. (1984) The Orwellian World of Jehovah's Witnesses. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Bromley, David G. & Anson D. Shupe. (1979) 'Moonies' in America. Beverly Hills Sage Publications.

Brose, A.J. (1982) Jehovah's Witnesses: Recruitment and Enculturation in a Millennial Sect. Ph.D. diss. Univ. of Calif., Ann Arbor: UMI

Carroll, R.P. (1979) When Prophecy Failed. Reactions and Responses to failure in the Old Testament Prophetic Traditions. London: SCM-press.

Curry, M.D. (1980) Jehovah's Witnesses: The Effects of Millenarianism on the maintenance of a religious sect. Ph.D. diss. Florida State Univ., Ann Arbor: University Microfilms International

Festinger, L. et al. (1964) When Prophecy Fails. New York: Harper & Row. (orig. 1956)

Franz, R. (1985) Crises of Conscience. Atlanta: Commentary Press.

Gager, J.G. (1975) Kingdom and Community. The Social World of early Christianity. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.

Hardyck, J.A. & M. Braden. (1962) "Prophecy fails again: A report of a failure to replicate." Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 65(2):136-141.

Jonsson, C.A. & W. Herbst. (1987) The "Sign" of the Last Days - When? Atlanta: Commentary Press.

Penton, M.J. (1985) Apocalypse Delayed. The Story of Jehovah's Witnesses. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.

Schwartz, Th. (1976) "The cargo-cult: a Melanesian type response to change," pp. 157-206 in De Vos, G.A. ed. Responses to change. Society, culture and personality. New York: Van Nostrand.

Stevenson, W.C. (1967) Year of Doom, 1975. The Story of Jehovah's Witnesses. London: Hutchinson (Also published as: The Inside Story of Jehovah's Witnesses. New York: Hart Publishing 1968).

Wallis, Roy. (1987) "New Religions and the Potential for World Re-enchantment: Religion as Way of Life, Preference and Commodity," pp 87-98 in Secularization and Religion: The Persisting Tension. Acts of the XIXth ICSR, Tübingen 1987. Lausanne: CISR.

Weiser, Neil. (1974) "The Effects of Prophetic Disconfirmation of the Committed." Review of Religious Research 16(1)19-30.

White, T. (1967) A People for His Name. A History of Jehovah's Witnesses and an evaluation. New York: Vantage Press.

Zygmunt, J.F. (1972) "When Prophecies Fail." American Behavioral Scientist 16 (2)245-267.

───────── (1977) Jehovah's Witnesses in the USA: 1942-1976." Social Compass 24(1) 45-47.

────── (1981) "Prophetic Failure and Chiliastic Identity: the case of Jehovah's Witnesses," pp. 195-220 in Jansma L.G. & P. Schulten eds. Religieuze Bewegingen. The Hague: Mouton [orig. in American Journal of Sociology 1970(76)926-948]